Victory Can Be A Short-Lived Thing

Norman Abjorensen - The Australian

For Simon Crean and his supporters there is a critical point to ponder before they celebrate and crow: is this the beginning of the end or the end of the beginning?

Recent political history on both sides of the political fence suggests that there is a pattern in the process of destabilising and challenging the leadership, and invariably it is a two-round fight with the worst yet to come.
Back in 1975 with the Liberals wallowing in opposition after two federal election losses, to which they were quite unaccustomed, the hapless Billy Snedden, trailing in the polls despite the mounting unpopularity of the Whitlam government, had to withstand two challenges from Malcolm Fraser before he was toppled.

When an ambitious Bob Hawke entered Federal parliament in 1980 with the messianic conviction that he alone could defeat Fraser, it was always a matter of not if, but when, he would challenge Bill Hayden for the leadership. Again, it took two rounds of heavy slogging before Hawke triumphed on a TKO when Hayden relinquished the leadership on the eve of the 1983 election.

Down in Victoria, where the Liberals went into opposition in 1982 after 27 years in office, a young Jeff Kennett was elected leader after the outgoing Premier, Lindsay Thompson, remained just long enough to ensure a smooth succession. Kennett, however, did not sail smoothly and was deposed. It took him two challenges against the man who succeeded him, Alan Brown, to regain the leadership which in 1992 enabled him to become premier.

Again on the Labor side, a restless Paul Keating had to go into the ring twice to defeat Bob Hawke – the first time an incumbent ALP prime minister had been rolled by his own party room. The pattern in each case suggests that the first round of the battle is to show colours and seek to tie up the votes of the uncommitted and the waverers; it is essentially a softening up process, and generally favours the incumbent.

Like an advancing army, however, it establishes a beachhead and stakes out ground behind the lines. It marks the end of the phony war and from that point on it is for keeps.

The huffing and puffing of the windbag Mark Latham about the tactics of the Beazley camp flying in the face of Labor tradition is utter nonsense, and someone as steeped in ALP history as Latham surely is knows it.

Just over 20 years ago when Hawke began to flex his muscles in earnest, polls were taken which showed him to be more popular than either Fraser or Hayden, and internal Labor polling which highlighted doubts about Hayden was leaked all over the place. Party officials, too, were not above talking up Hawke's appeal when they spoke to journalists.

In fact, so blatant was the Hawke push, especially at the 1982 ALP national conference, that Hayden was forced to respond by calling for a leadership vote in caucus, defeating Hawke by the dangerously narrow margin of only five votes. Hawke had his toehold, his support was solid and a mediocre performance by Labor at a by-election later that year just about sealed Hayden's fate.

Anyone who was around the press gallery during the final months of Hawke's prime ministership witnessed daily destabilisation on a mighty scale as Keating's determined lieutenants openly white-anted Hawke. Their message – that the government was drifting under Hawke – was taken up as a mantra. Keating's first challenge, in June 1991, was rebuffed decisively by 66 votes to 44, but had the effect of untying Keating's hands as he left the cabinet and went to the backbench.

The momentum against Hawke continued to build inexorably over the next few months as the economy faltered and Hawke's standing in the polls dropped dramatically to the extent that he fell behind the Opposition leader John Hewson. On December 19, the tide had turned and in his second challenge, Keating had the numbers, 56 to 52. Hawke was history.

The lesson would seem to be that a first round win, however convincing, is no reason to celebrate. All it does is demonstrate, openly and quite dangerously, that the incumbent is unpopular with a significant number of his own party. The next challenge may not come from Beazley, but the anti-Crean forces are unlikely to undergo sudden conversions. History suggests a challenged leader is a damaged leader. The war may have only just begun.

Norman Abjorensen, a biographer of former Liberal leader John Hewson, teaches politics at the University of Canberra.