End Of The Liberal Alliance
June 4, 2003
Paul Kelly - The Australian
The rise and rise of Peter Costello has stalled.
Costello, 45, is left trapped and disappointed by John Howard's political bubble that has culminated in his staying in the Lodge. Costello has been a leader-in-waiting for nine years – and nine years is too long. Costello, like Paul Keating before him, suffers from being a skyrocket at a young age. At his strained media conference yesterday, Costello was nervous and emotional.
But there was one central message – Costello believes Howard's decision to remain in office is wrong and misguided. He didn't say this but he let his disappointment show. Costello assumes Howard will stay beyond his 64th birthday in July to lead the Coalition into the next election.
The Howard-Costello alliance died at 9.30 on Monday morning. That was when Costello entered Howard's office for a 60-minute meeting at which he was told by Howard that he would be staying. Howard faced Costello eye to eye in a meeting that must have resembled the famous Hawke-Keating encounters in the same office. It is not surprising that Howard failed to satisfy Costello.
Costello believes that the best time for the leadership transition is now. He thinks that with the Coalition strong and Labor weak, a transition during this term will renew the Coalition for another long era under his prime ministership. Costello will never be more ready. There is a cycle in politics and Costello has gone full circle – yet he is being consigned to 12 years as deputy and another three on top of his eight budgets as Treasurer.
It is the problem that Keating confronted and the result is known – Keating got to the Lodge too late. He was physically and psychologically diminished from the first day. Keating never forgave Bob Hawke.
Howard's decision is not a surprise and Costello must have seen it coming. The rest of the cabinet did. Howard is a political animal and he reacted to political sentiment. His cabinet, his parliamentary party and Coalition voters wanted him to stay. Not everybody, but the majority. The Labor Party was desperate for him to resign. So what else would Howard do?
The irony is immense. Having been dismissed as a second-rater for so long, Howard now finds the party demanding that he stay. The tactics and timing of his move yesterday were astute. It was fast, crisp and over in a day, allowing the future focus to fall on Labor's woes. Howard's prime ministership defies the normal cycle – it gets stronger as it advances. His decision will encourage Labor towards Kim Beazley over Simon Crean. But Howard believes he can defeat Crean and he has beaten Beazley twice.
Howard, like Hawke, just loves being PM. It prompts the question: does he love it too much? Has Howard traded off a better Coalition win at the 2004 election by jeopardising the long-term leadership transition? Has Howard from his euphoric peak misjudged how fast fortunes can change and how subsequent mistakes will cast him as a leader who stayed too long?
Costello is left with few options. He must stay deputy and Treasurer, because moving from these jobs would weaken him. But his relationship with Howard is changed irrevocably. Any sense of trust and partnership is gone.
Just read Costello's words. He depicts himself as a deputy who offered stability and loyalty for nine years. What has Howard offered in return? The implication is obvious: Costello has put the party and country first, but Howard now puts himself first. This is what Costello must believe in his heart. Don't think that nothing much happened yesterday. This Government has changed. It won't be the same again because the Howard-Costello relationship has turned.
At this point Costello's psychology resembles that of Keating – he feels his efforts and economic management are absorbed not just for the common good but for Howard's personal ambitions, at Costello's cost.
Costello has no plan for a challenge. He lacks enough support, the final proof of Howard's success. Costello has accepted Howard's decision at face value. But he has chosen to redefine his role as Liberal Party deputy leader – this was Costello's vital message yesterday.
He has selected a role model – it is John Howard, as deputy leader from December 1984 until September 1985, when Howard outmanoeuvred Peacock and became leader. This '80s crisis was triggered by Howard's refusal to rule out any challenge. The formula Costello used yesterday is exactly the same as that adopted by Howard when asked about a challenge to Peacock in December 1984. Howard said: "Given the track record of loyalty I have always displayed towards leaders that I have served, I don't believe it is necessary for me to add to the answer."
It is now Costello's formula. He will follow Howard in another respect – just as Howard was an activist deputy ventilating ideas, so Costello will become a more activist deputy pushing his own agenda.
But Howard is smarter than Peacock. He won't allow Costello to intimidate him the way that he intimidated Peacock. Howard knows Peacock's blunder was to overact. So Howard is likely in coming days to offer Costello assurances and endorse the treasurer as his successor.
Howard's game plan seems clear. He knows that Costello must either challenge or wait. Both the numbers and Costello's temperament suggest that he will wait. Howard would have assessed this issue and made this judgment long ago. One senior Liberal captured Costello's dilemma, saying: "Peter's future is secure. The only thing that stands between Peter and the succession is himself."
That dictates a Costello strategy of acceptance, though Labor will mock him for it. But Costello will remain alienated from Howard – and that must undermine the cohesion, stability and image of the Coalition Government.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
| 