That Was The Year That Was

Tony Walker - Financial Review

..In the line-up of the eight nationally significant stories for the year I would rate:

1. drought
   
2. John Howard's ascendancy
   
3. pedophilia within the Anglican and Catholic churches
   
4. asylum seekers
   
5. Labor's clean sweep in state and territory elections in contrast to Simon Crean's troubles
   
6. fallout from the HIH collapse
   
7. the Democrats' implosion and rise of the Greens
   
8. household debt.
   

Internationally, the five most significant stories of the year were:

1. George Bush's State of the Union "axis of evil" address
   
2. Middle East turmoil, including suicide bombing
   
3. birth of the euro
   
4. the collapse of Enron and WorldCom
   
5. trial of Slobodan Milosevic for crimes against humanity.
   

Why drought at No1? For the simple reason that the worst drought in more than a generation has affected more Australian lives, and the national economy, than any other single event.

According to the Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics, the big dry cost the economy $4 billion in 2002 and will shave as much as 0.5 per cent off economic growth for 2002-03.

If drought persists for a second consecutive year for the first time since the early 1960s, the consequences for the rural sector and for the economy generally will be much more severe. This is what journalists call a "running story".

John Howard's ascendancy is self-evident. By whatever means, Howard wormed his way into the Australian consciousness, if not affection, in 2002 and seemed omnipresent.

..Governor-General Peter Hollingworth's reputation looks as if it will never recover from the allegations that he was benignly neglectful of abuses in the Brisbane archdiocese while archbishop there.

Catholic Archbishop George Pell may have been exonerated of any wrongdoing himself as a younger priest (by an internal inquiry), but his reputation and that of the Catholic Church seem to have been irredeemably damaged.

The running sore of the asylum seekers-mandatory detention, further dramatised by arson at two withholding centres in the past few days, puts this issue firmly in the ranks of the year's main preoccupations.

Labor's clean sweep in state and territory elections.. has a significance beyond historical curiosity because it may herald a new paradigm in which a fiscally conservative coalition government rules from Canberra's commanding heights while Labor labours in the state vineyards, dispensing dollars for education and health, and trying to make the trams and trains run on time.

Simon Crean's troubles were manifest in what was a year he would probably prefer to forget. His supporters would argue he is capable of better. We shall see.

..The Democrats' implosion and the Greens' rise helped to change the political landscape, exemplified by the Greens' victory in a by-election in October in the hitherto safe Labor seat of Cunningham.

Last, but by no means least, is the hydra-headed monster of household debt, which probably has much greater significance politically than almost anything else, drought included. The facts: in the six years of the Howard government, household debt to income has grown from 81.9 per cent to 122.3 per cent.

However, beyond all that, I believe that the most significant event of the year was Bush's "axis of evil" speech delivered on January 29, 2002 - in which he linked (wrongly in my opinion) Iran, Iraq and North Korea in a sort of continuum of terrorism. It helped define the year - and America's actions.

Anyone who has read Barry Glassner's The Culture of Fear, which describes the dangers of state- and media-prompted paranoia, would understand this is going to be a bumpy ride - for all of us.