Long Wait For The Man Who Would Be PM
December 23, 2002
Malcolm Farr - Daily Telegraph
IT was the sort of frolic you might see in a schoolyard, except the participants were firmly into middle age and the venue was Parliament House.
John Howard was walking in a courtyard, in thought, hands in pockets.
Peter Costello came up behind him and made to climb up the Prime Minister's back, as if taking a screamer of a mark for Essendon.
He didn't actually touch him, fortunately, because it would have been a lot of Treasurer to have bouncing off a smallish Prime Minister.
Both men laughed, chatted briefly and went about their separate errands.
It wasn't an exchange you might imagine between two men estranged because one won't vacate the job the other lusts after. It wasn't a stiff, tense encounter which neither wanted, but neither could avoid.
It was a light-hearted josh between two workmates.
Before the violins come in, it should be made clear that Peter Costello very much wants to replace John Howard as leader of the Liberal Party and Prime Minister.
Further, it must be accepted that John Howard is in no mind to walk away from those positions he worked so hard to earn just because someone thinks it is his turn.
Each has a team of barrackers and staff who run their campaigns, but the two men are not at war.
The notion raised last week with the departure of chief public servant Max Moore-Wilton that Mr Howard might soon announce he will step aside mid-year, committing himself to six months of lame duck status, was perverse. If the Prime Minister was to announce anything early it would be that he is staying on.
He will, as he rashly volunteered two years ago, review his position when he reaches age 64 on July 26.
There is no expectation among senior Liberals that he and Janette will then pack their bags and walk out the door of Kirribilli House at the stroke of midnight.
However, there is a strong belief, shared by Mr Costello, that John Howard will make way at some point mutually convenient before the next election.
They have discussed it and have developed a broad understanding without reaching a deal on timing or style of handover.
Those closest to the PM say he has not made up his mind. He is enjoying himself and voters are making him feel comfortable.
On ABC radio in Perth on Thursday a caller borrowed from Muhamed Ali to tell the Prime Minister: "You are the greatest."
Mr Howard in reply quoted Australian boxer Jeff Fenech: "I love youse all."
Mr Costello also is as relaxed as possible for anyone who has been Treasurer for near to seven years. The fact is, he has no choice.
The central feature of this debate is that Peter Costello does not have many options.
He might force a showdown which most likely he would lose, and for which many backbenchers would not thank him for years to come.
If he does get the sword out, as Paul Keating has advised, he risks damaging both his medium and long-term chances of advancement.
He might resign and go into the private sector, perhaps joining other Liberals in the growing cabinet-in-exile known as Macquarie Bank.
Mr Costello has given no indication he is thinking of dumping politics, and would be unlikely to do so this close achieving his ambition.
There are other factors which could prove decisive to his apparant stand-off. For one, next year we might be at war with Iraq.
The actual war might be relatively brief, but it would bring the possibility of retaliatory strikes in Australia by Islamic extremists.
Even if the terrorism does not occur, John Howard would feel obligated to stay Prime Minister through a difficult period of national insecurity, a period which might last for several months.
Meanwhile, domestic issues also could unsettle Mr Costello's preferred timetable.
The drought has battered the 2002-2003 Budget and a war would worsen its condition by increasing spending and depressing the global economy, and thus demand for our exports.
Mr Howard needs no reminding of the difficult times ahead and his personal office has increasingly involved itself in sensitive issues, from health policy to defence.
The Prime Minister is in effect bunkering down for some tough times ahead. The times ahead will decide if and when he goes, not some hungry junior.
Merry Christmas, Peter.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
| 