Will The October Curse Draw Howard's Vote?

by Phillip Hudson - Sydney Morning Herald

One of the perks of being the prime minister is that you get to decide the election date.

Electoral law and the constitution set out the broad time frame, but it is the prime minister alone who chooses the day.

John Howard's window of opportunity opened yesterday. He may now call the election for any Saturday until January 19.

But he won't be rushing to the polls just yet for three reasons. The first is that he is too far behind in the opinion polls and needs more time to use the power of incumbency to try to claw back support.

The second is that he still gets a bit of a chill thinking about election campaigns in July. July 11 will mark the 20th anniversary of Howard's defeat at the hands of Bob Hawke. And the third is that Howard likes October (and November). Three times he has used the power to name the election day. He selected October in 1998 and 2004 and November in 2001.

The Asia-Pacific Economic Co-operation summit in Sydney in early September places some restrictions on the timetable because Howard wants that out of the way, and the fortnight of Parliament that follows, before triggering the minimum 33-day campaign period for writs to be issued and the mechanics of the election to swing into action.

It means October 27 must be looking a good bet to Howard. And why wouldn't he think that when he has the October poll curse on his side?

The past five October elections - 1937, 1969, 1980, 1998 and 2004 - were contested by first-time Labor leaders and all were defeated at the ballot box. How tempting must it be for Howard to harness the power of the curse and find some way of toppling another first-time Labor leader in Kevin Rudd, who is well ahead in the opinion polls.

In 1937 John Curtin increased Labor's vote from 27 to 43 per cent, but the 11 seats he gained were insufficient to overcome the prime minister, Joseph Lyons.

In the "Don's Party" election of 1969, Gough Whitlam won 18 seats but it was not quite time. In 1980 Bill Hayden also increased Labor's share of the vote but fell victim to the curse.

Perhaps the unluckiest of the first-time Labor leaders was Kim Beazley in 1998. He won more than 50 per cent of the two-party vote in the GST election - but Howard managed to hang on.

In 2004 Labor put forward another new leader, Mark Latham. Unlike those who fell before him, Latham did not make any ground and the Coalition also won Senate control.

There have been six October elections, the first of them in 1929, when Labor's Jim Scullin (in his second election) crushed the conservative prime minister Stanley Bruce, who lost his own seat.

What happens if Howard chooses November? Is there a November poll curse?

Perhaps. There have been six November elections since federation and in all six the incumbent conservative leader has won.

In 1925 Matthew Charlton was defeated at his second election as leader. In 1928 Scullin lost his first go. In 1958 Doc Evatt failed for a third time. In 1963 and 1966 Arthur Calwell was fighting his second and third campaigns. In 2001 Beazley became a two-time loser.

The bottom line is that for a long time October and November elections have brought grim news for Labor. What a challenge for Kevin Rudd. And one more thing: if Rudd is to become Australia's 26th prime minister, he not only has to crush the curse, but also the alphabet jinx.

Twenty former prime ministers have surnames starting with letters in the first half of the alphabet. Only five are in the second half and the last one approved by voters was named Whitlam - 33 years ago.