One-Time Ugly Duckling May Come To Party

by Glenn Milne - The Australian

In all the focus on Kevin Rudd's opinion poll ascendancy there has been one political corollary of the Labor leader's dominance that has been overlooked: the crucial role likely to be played by the Nationals this year.

In 1996 when John Howard overwhelmed a jaded Paul Keating, his parliamentary majority was such that the Liberal Party could have governed in its own right. Howard, a devout Coalitionist, kept the Nationals in the government fold. This is not just sentimentality on Howard's part. He knows the instant the Nationals cease to exist or are shut out of a conservative administration, another rural rump will arise to take its place. Howard has had one Pauline Hanson in his career; he does not want another. Howard will need the Nationals by his side. And he will need them to do well.

The dusty backblock seats held by the Nationals may ultimately prove vital. The Nats, for their part, are convinced they will hold up their end. Their confidence follows a low-key but concerted drive to preselect a swag of strong community-based candidates to take on Labor. You won't find a Maxine McKew among them.

But before we turn to those seats, it's also worth taking stock of the Nationals' continuing influence at the apex of government in Canberra. While commentators are often prone to paint the Nats as marginal, a party which viewed historically is on the wane, the fact is they still wield significant power.

Peter Langhorne, the former chief of staff to retired deputy prime minister John Anderson, has now been appointed as Howard's principal private secretary. He succeeds Tony Nutt, who has moved up to chief of staff, replacing the legendary Arthur Sinodinos who moved on late last year to bucketloads of money in the private sector. If you think that's a gratuitous observation, take note of the farewell gift Sinodinos was given by the Prime Minister's office: an autographed wheelbarrow in which to transport his new weekly salary.

As the Prime Minister's PPS, Langhorne will be in charge of the paperwork in Howard's office. And in politics he who is in charge of the paper flow is in charge. The other election year cockpit in the ministerial wing is Malcolm Turnbull's office. And over there Frank Jackson has just been appointed as senior adviser on water.

Jackson has been a Nationals loyalist all his life. He was around in the Joh era, but made his reputation as press secretary to one of Bjelke-Petersen's successors, Rob Borbidge. You can be sure Jackson will watch out for the Nationals' interests as Turnbull grapples with the politics of drought and climate change. If there was any doubt about the Nationals' continued inside running within the cabinet you need only look at the $19billion roads package, revealed by my colleague Steve Lewis in The Australian last week, and about to be formally unveiled by Transport Minister, Nationals leader and deputy Prime Minister, Mark Vaile.

The AusLink package, as it's known, is a win for Vaile. Last year he declared publicly that infrastructure spending should take precedence this term over tax cuts. This reflected the Nationals' own private research which showed that in their electorates, infrastructure was the number two issue of concern to voters after health services.

The times have suited Vaile. In a climate where Labor, too, is promising big infrastructure spending and where tax cuts could tip the Reserve Bank over the edge into another rate rise, his views have prevailed.

It's smart politics, too. Auslink runs over five years. The present program was due to expire in 2009. By announcing its successor now, Vaile is trying to lock Labor into the Nationals agenda. Do you think Rudd is going to go around stripping local councils of road funding that's already been promised?

Some of that funding will go to the NSW seat of Page where late last week, Larry Anthony decided he'd have another tilt at politics. Anthony, a former Nationals Minister in the last Howard Government, son of Doug, lost his father's seat of Richmond in 2004.

Now, thanks to the latest redistribution, large slabs of Richmond have gone into Page, where the sitting Nationals member, Ian Causley, is calling it a day. Anthony's decision to throw his hat in for preselection is a vote of confidence in the Nationals' future - though he recognises that with Rudd in the equation the election fight will be a tough one.

Along with Anthony, the Nationals' federal director Andrew Hall has put together a clutch of other impressive candidates. In Parkes, local cotton grower Dick Estens, who chaired the Government's inquiry into Telstra's bush services, is running for preselection against two other local mayors, Mark Coulton and Dennis Yeo. In Leichhardt, where Liberal MP Warren Entsch is retiring, the Nationals have recruited prominent local businessman Ian Crossland.

Crossland's family founded Cairns, at the heart of the seat. When he announced his candidacy there were a number of defections from the local Liberal branch. In Forde, the Nationals are running a young woman barrister, Hajnal Ban, who grew up in Israel. The daughter of a Hungarian Jewish father, she's now a Presbyterian.

In Fadden, Hall is hopeful of snaring Alex Douglas, the candidate who took the Gold Coast seat of Gaven from the Beattie Government in a by-election last year. Hinkler and Maryborough, held by the Nats' Paul Neville and Warren Truss on the Queensland mid-north coast, have both been made safer through redistribution.

But it's Flynn, the new seat created in Queensland, around the industrial port city of Gladstone, that's really interesting. This is a seat that Labor must win to make Kevin Rudd prime minister. Yet, according to the Nationals on the ground, the ALP has been blundering about in its candidate selection.

First, a candidate was pre-selected by rank and file ballot. Then Labor's head office intervened and installed a woman, Jennifer Algie, who was virtually unknown in the community. The Nationals followed with their candidate, a town mayor and policeman, Glenn Churchill. Among his other qualifications Churchill was also the drummer in a support band for Midnight Oil. Should he be elected that will add some frisson to the water debate with Peter Garrett across the chamber.

In support of Churchill the Nationals mounted a pointed campaign highlighting their man's local credentials. Algie, Labor's head office candidate, then suddenly withdrew. The Gladstone Observer reported last week that in the face of local branch complaints, Rudd had personally intervened to try to get the candidate for the state seat of Gladstone at the last election (who lost to Independent Liz Cunningham) to stand.

Which goes to show that Rudd, at least, has already recognised how important the Nationals are likely to be come November. Vaile intends to make sure that Howard, too, comes to the same realisation.