Albanese's Independence

by Glenn Milne - Sunday Telegraph

Anthony Albanese sent a ripple through the federal parliament last week that may yet reach every voter in the land.

Albanese's intervention came in an arcane procedural debate that would have passed most Australians by.

Not that the debate itself was unimportant.

What the Government quietly did last week was to further tighten its already considerable control over parliament.

It used its numbers to force through new rules putting a one-hour limit on the time allowed for what's called "the Matter of Public Importance'' debate.

The MPI traditionally takes place after Question Time and is the only major opportunity afforded to the Opposition each day to comprehensively take on the Government over what it sees as the issue of the moment.

Albanese is the manager of opposition business in the House of Representatives.

As such, it fell to him to attack the Government over this further emasculation of democratic process.

But it was the way Albanese did it that had those MPs listening sitting up and taking notice.

Normally, political parties only look out for themselves.

But in his speech, Albanese extended his sense of democratic affront to include the three Independents in the parliament - Bob Katter, Peter Andren and Tony Windsor.

Here's some of what Albanese had to say: "This provision (the MPI) has served this parliament for 106 years. What we have is an arrogant government that wants to stifle debate in an election year, a government determined to avoid scrutiny and accountability, a government prepared to take this extraordinary step in order to particularly stifle the three Independents in this House.''

What's that again? The interests of the Independents mentioned before the Labor Party? You bet.

And it was no slip of the tongue, either. Albanese went on to refer to them twice more before concluding: "Labor will oppose this proposition. We will stand with the Independents.''

Again the next day, Albanese jumped to the defence of Windsor when the Government-appointed Speaker cut him off during an uncomfortable question to the Prime Minister.

So what is Albanese doing, cosying up to the Independents?

Government MPs watching both of his performances last week think they know. And as usual in politics it has to do with numbers. And with Kevin Rudd.

It is now clear, on the basis of the published opinion polls so far, that Rudd has given the Opposition a sustainable shot at the next election.

John Howard, himself, is warning his colleagues at every turn that it's now likely to be close.
Labor needs a net gain of 16 seats to win government.

That would require a uniform swing of between four per cent and five per cent.

With the average election swing only around two per cent, that's a Herculean task. But against that, a swing of just over three per cent would give Labor a gain of 14 seats.

That's much more attainable.

And if Rudd were to achieve that it would put him in negotiations with the current three Independents to form a minority government.

All three are expected to hold their seats.

It's a prospect that's always been regarded as an outside chance. But Albanese clearly thinks otherwise. He told parliament last week there was a chance the Independents could end with more than three seats after this year's election.

If Albanese is right this brings Labor much closer to power.

Conceivably, they might only have to win as few as a net 10 seats to form a minority government with independent support.

Peter Andren, for one, privately thinks there could be at least two more like-minded MPs in Parliament after November this year.

He's coy about what seats they might win. But Bob Katter, too, is trying to put a network of independent candidates together in Queensland.

And all three - Andren, Windsor and Katter - have helped establish an online support system for potential grassroots candidates, called "ICAN''.

Andren says the initiative has thrown up some promising talent.

The current Independents believe they will have a better read on the mood of the election after the March 24 NSW election where a swag of community candidates are running, particularly in the Hunter Valley region north of Sydney - the cockpit of the debate over coal and greenhouse gas emissions.

If Independents do well in NSW, expect the idea of a surge in representation federally to gain more currency.

In which case, Albanese and the ALP will already be ahead of the game.