Hard Questions Throw Beazley Off Message

by Dennis Shanahan - The Australian

Why did Kim Beazley appear at the National Press Club in Canberra this week?

As Opposition Leader you would think he'd sit down and look at the calendar before committing to a public address and televised press grilling.

After all, this week was always going to be the week after an interest rate rise. It doesn't take a genius to work out that the Reserve Bank board meets on the the first Tuesday of the month and announces its interest rate intentions on the following Wednesday.

Ergo, the long anticipated interest rate rise would be announced on November 8 and the Howard Government would be under the pump from about 9.30am that day.

On a much lesser scale, but still of great weight within the ALP caucus, the regular Newspoll survey was due to be published in The Australian on Tuesday. The two expected outcomes were that the Howard Government would suffer a blow because of the interest rate rise, or that federal Labor would pay a price for the scandals enveloping state Labor governments. The latter version was extant among the Labor hard heads for various reasons.

At a third level, the Labor Party was in front on the greenhouse gas emissions debate and didn't need to detract from John Howard's own indecision and the publicity surrounding the arrival in Australia of former US presidential candidate and climate change commando, Al Gore, and the chief executive of News Corporation, Rupert Murdoch, both of whom are talking about the need for a carbon trading scheme of sorts.

On rates there was no advantage for the Leader of the Opposition to make himself a target when the Coalition would feel the natural heat from the electorate. On the states there were only negatives for the Labor Party generally and negatives personally for Beazley on relations with his old friend under investigation in Western Australia, Brian Burke.

Greenhouse gas emissions are a difficult issue for Labor, as it tries to juggle the competing interests of working unionists such as the coal miners and the conservationists attracted to the Greens. The Howard Government is in enough trouble of its own making on this issue for Labor to take advantage merely by taking pot shots from the sideline.

But Beazley committed to a big speech at the press club nonetheless, a speech that contained no news headline but was a fair summary of his position so far, leaving some of his frontbench colleagues scratching their heads.

They were scratching their heads for the simple reason that Labor was always on a hiding to nothing on the state scandals, the rise in interest rates would inexorably do its own political damage and the greenhouse issue just complicated things.

As it turned out, nothing went right for Beazley.

Despite the interest rate rise the previous week the Newspoll survey showed Labor's primary vote support falling four percentage points -- outside the margin of error and therefore a significant fall -- from 41per cent to 37 per cent and leaving Labor with an illusory two-party preferred vote of 50-50. As Paul Keating has pointed out, Labor can't win with a primary vote below 40 per cent. That's why it's important, and the ALP has lost elections with more than 50 per cent of the two-party-preferred vote.

Second-preference majorities do not reflect election results based on victories in seats and are only succour for losers and revisionists.

Hence, the interpretation of this week's Newspoll survey, published in The Australian, became a vital political point. Beazley's advisers embraced the hypothesis that the stinking states had cancelled out the immediate impact of the interest rate rise. Stephen Smith, staunch Labor frontbencher and former ALP state secretary, who understands polling, enthusiastically blamed the states for the damage to the Labor brand.

While people do differentiate when voting at state and national levels between Labor and Liberal, they are likely to register a protest vote in an opinion poll.

As Smith said this week about the four-point drop in the Newspoll survey: "There was nothing federally that was running against us.

"I think the old brand name has taken a battering with the difficulties here (NSW), in Queensland, and Western Australia."

But the former state secretary then made the point that "... I think that will wash through. In the end the punters know the difference between state Labor and federal Labor".

Smith's right. He didn't try to deny the significance of the poll and put forward a plausible, if limited, explanation. There has been a litany of Labor scandals at state level involving ministers, former ministers and former premiers and deputy premiers with allegations of child sex abuse, conspiracy, extortion, lying and corruption. An impact on federal Labor, as Smith concedes, is unavoidable. Its extent is difficult to calculate but there is no doubt Beazley stuck his head above the parapet needlessly.

Without anything new to offer in his economic blueprint speech, Beazley was left to answer questions about his personal relationship with former jailed WA premier Burke, currently under investigation in Perth and banned from government contact by WA Premier Alan Carpenter.

Even yesterday as Beazley tried to talk about his positive vision on morning radio he was bombarded with questions about state scandals and rumblings within his own party about his frontbench.

On ABC radio's Across Australia Charles Wooley said in relation to Beazley's Press Club speech: "I am going to let you talk about your blueprint for prosperity if we do have some time."

Then Wooley resumed: "You were much hurt by the Brian Burke affair again, weren't you?"

And so went a later press conference in Sydney which Beazley called to discuss the Asia-Pacific Economic Co-operation forum meeting. After a short preamble the Labor leader was not asked one question about APEC but rather he was quizzed about Labor giving back money that Burke had raised, former ministers in NSW and the performance of his environmental spokesman, Anthony Albanese, as opposed to backbencher and high-profile conservationist Peter Garrett.

The end result for Beazley, as it was on his appearance on the ABC 7.30 Report, was questions about state Labor and his frontbenchers' performance.

There is little doubt there is some overflow of state to federal issues and this affects parties of the same name. The impact can't be expected to outlast interest rate rises and state elections but Beazley's tactics in dealing with the situation were questionable. He's under pressure and is not reacting well.