Derailing Madness In The Air

by Dennis Shanahan - The Australian

That bustling haystack of a man, Ron Boswell, is "up to his arse in alligators" in the state of Queensland as he tries to fend off a challenge to his Nationals' seat in the Senate. The political knives are out for the 65-year-old former paint brush salesman who looks as if he's heading for a bruising in the pre-selection ballot next year.

With three years of his six-year term to run, Boswell is in danger of being pitched out by Barnaby Joyce's running partner at the last election, former Nationals' ministerial staffer and serving army officer, James Baker. Not only do members of the Nationals' Queensland state executive and state parliament want to put Baker on the ticket instead of Boswell, they want Boswell to stand down immediately and have Baker appointed to fill the casual vacancy created.

This casual vacancy rort is practised by all the parties, even the Democrats, which gives the newcomer years or months to settle into the job and run a re-election campaign with taxpayers' funds. However, seeking his retirement three years out from the expected election on the basis of an internal pre-selection ballot does seem a bit rich even from the inheritors of the Joh-for-Canberra tradition.

But, apart from the simple human pathos of such a nasty connivance after more than 20 years' loyal service, there is a much broader, and more important, stratagem afoot.

It is a stratagem that has the potential to affect all Australians, not just the few who may have a choice between Baker or Boswell at the next election, due in 2007; there is the potential to destabilise the federal Coalition and frustrate the Howard Government. There is also the possibility of real damage being done to the standing of the Nationals and the future of the party. The Nationals aren't making headway in Queensland against Labor's Peter Beattie and federal Liberals are baying for a reduction in Nationals representation on the frontbench and in cabinet.

This not just some barney between Boswell and Barnaby: what is at play here is the effective creation of a balance-of-power party in the Senate from within the Coalition.

One vote - Joyce's - isn't enough to call the shots in the Senate but two votes are. Two Senate votes can derail the Coalition's majority in the Senate.

A new balance-of-power party, which would be dictated to by the unseen forces of the Nationals' headquarters in George Street, Brisbane, is a real possibility.

If Boswell is unseated and forced to retire, Baker can assume the Senate seat, join forces with his old partner and friend, Joyce, and then have control of the Senate from March-April next year. John Howard's golden era of Senate control, during which he has passed the final sale of Telstra and the industrial relations reforms, would be over. The gains of 2004 would be lost.

Joyce, on his own, has shown that he can be outplayed by Victorian Family First Senator Steve Fielding on some issues. Fielding's decision to vote with the Government on the issue of voluntary student unionism showed the Nationals in Queensland that Joyce's threats to cross the floor could be blunted and completely neutralised. They need to control another number in the Senate to hold power. That's why they set out, before the VSU vote, to bring forward the pre-selection process. It was this that sparked Boswell's famous criticism of Joyce in the Senate, not the other way around.

This is where the campaign to oust Boswell comes in. Boswell, no stranger to crossing the floor himself or to taking on the Nationals' executive, is a strong Coalitionist of the belief that the Nationals need to be in Coalition to get anything and in return need to deliver the numbers in the Senate. It was Boswell who angered some of his colleagues when he decided to take on Pauline Hanson to destroy the threat to the Nationals from the Right and defeated Hanson at the 2001 election. Boswell has become a brand name for the Nationals in Queensland, and nationally, on the basis of of his good looks and ability to extract deals from the Liberals. Boswell has won concessions for the sugar and banana industries, reef fishermen and is the father of the super yacht business in Queensland as well as extracting millions from the sale of Telstra.

Yesterday, just by coincidence, Howard announced the mandating of ethanol levels in petrol that will ensure the national use of ethanol is 350gigalitres by 2010, a godsend for Queensland farmers. "I want to thank a number of my colleagues for the contribution that they have made for arguing the case for a better understanding. I single out Senator Ron Boswell, the leader of the National Party in the Senate, who has campaigned very strongly for a more sensible approach to ethanol and to biofuels," the Prime Minister said.

I suppose if the PM had had Boswell standing next to him for the announcement it would have looked a tad too obvious. Besides, Boswell is straddling a fine line, a tough job for a big man, along with his leader Mark Vaile: how do you convince people that they are better off in a coalition, being able to deliver to their constituents benefits they couldn't hope to get outside of a coalition, rather than pursuing a dramatic headline-grabbing media boost, for opposing measures the rest of Australia may want?

Then again it may not be all that hard. The Nationals face a long, slow decline over the next 10 to 15 years or a short sharp implosion that may bring down the Howard Government in a couple of years. There is a madness loose here similar to the Joh-for-Canberra campaign that destroyed Howard's chances of becoming prime minister before.

The odd thing is that the Coalition is actually in power in Canberra and able to deliver to its constituents. Two weeks ago Boswell held his famous Christmas party and Howard made a point of attending, hanging around eating oysters and talking to all the Nats who were there. Joyce was absent, he was looking after Flo Bjelke-Petersen who was down for the Nationals' Hawaii night.

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