Costello Seen As Throwing In Towel

Editorial - Canberra Times

Peter Costello has finally recognised the inevitable and signalled that he cannot challenge for, or expect to have, the prime ministership for the next six months, and that any chance of a succession depends entirely on John Howard's decision to retire from the fray. That is a decision which will give most of his Liberal Party colleagues, and a good deal of the country, deep relief. Until recently, some of his small but dedicated band of followers had talked of Mr Costello's giving the Prime Minister some sort of ultimatum early in 2006, and, assuming that Howard refused to go, mounting a challenge to the leadership. From that it had been assumed that Mr Costello would retire, as Paul Keating did when Bob Hawke dudded him, to the back bench, from which he would undermine the leader and ultimately take charge. There were always large problems with that scenario, not least that one might expect that a party room challenge would demonstrate that the base of Costello's support was humiliatingly small (almost certainly less than 10), certainly not large enough to fight a civil war, let alone hope to win it.

Moreover, such a challenge would produce a new deputy leader, and a new party alignment, in which the assumption that Costello was the natural heir apparent would be strongly contested. Some Howard loyalists who are themselves capable of challenging for the top job on Howard's departure have publicly pledged themselves to a smooth succession by Costello when Howard decides to go. But it can be taken that all bets would be off if Costello challenged, was routed, and destabilised the Government from the back bench.

Indeed, in such a situation not only obvious candidates, such as Brendan Nelson and Tony Abbott, feel up to a run for the deputy leadership and claim on the throne, but also (preposterously) Alexander Downer or Philip Ruddock, and even some back bench aspirants such as Malcolm Turnbull.

Peter Costello might just find himself completely out of time, and ultimately out of the running altogether.

Some indeed will wonder whether he has already reached that point, even if he hangs on to the deputy leadership.

He has certainly not enhanced his chances with his performance over the past fortnight with the Robert Gerard affair, whether in what it said of his judgment and organisation of the appointment, or his management of the crisis that ultimately emerged about it.

Most observers, including most of his parliamentary colleagues, watched the handling of the crisis carefully for signs of how he might handle leadership as well as for the signs of tension in his relationship with John Howard. They saw, as they have always seen, a good parliamentary performer who was quick on his feet and had some capacity for wit and bluster.

But they did not see substance, a man with a good story to tell, or a person who could make luck out of adversity or who had a natural feel for how his handling of such matters might go down in the electorate. They also saw a person with a propensity to blame others for his misfortunes, though one without a fraction of the art of John Howard in covering his tracks.

Increasingly, too, they saw some signs that the attack on Costello was being assisted with some leaking by political enemies from within his own party, including some pretty open disagreements from some of his fellow ministers. That sort of disloyalty is hardly new in politics - from time to time, indeed, it has been known for people close to the Treasurer to leak damaging information about his rivals or about the Prime Minister, just as the Prime Minister, in his rise to power, was ruthless in undermining his rivals. Some of the leaking against Costello this time, however, appeared to be strategic rather than tactical, and perhaps part of a bigger campaign. The author does not appear to be the Prime Minister, however much he appears to have enjoyed Costello's discomfort and, perhaps, the signs of a looming eclipse.

The idea that he might never be prime minister - even if he knuckles down - does not mean that Costello is suddenly impotent or on the skids. What has happened is that many of his colleagues now talk as though his succession is not automatic, and as though they expect (and hope) John Howard will stay on indefinitely without any regard for Costello's ambitions - what he has been pretty much doing anyway. Meanwhile, Costello has some deserved respect, as a Treasurer and as a parliamentary performer, one likely to be judged, perhaps, as a person who has served his party well but who, increasingly, seems to be making it clear that he is not foreman material. Not very many Liberals would see John Howard deposed just to make Costello prime minister, least of all on any sort of basis that he "deserves it" or "is entitled to it". That Costello has long seemed paralysed about how to force a succession has also, of course, raised doubts about whether he would, as prime minister, be capable of the ruthlessness which is sometimes necessary of a prime minister.

As British prime minister Harold Macmillan once remarked, a prime minister has to know how to wield the knife.

Yet Peter Costello has ample chance to recover, not least given that most Liberals would have considerable reservations about the leadership (or followership) of any of his potential successors, or rivals for the prime ministership. Moreover, John Howard, who has had a triumphant year, in parliament if not by the opinion polls, is quite capable of stumbling badly, making nervous Liberals cast about for a new saviour. Costello may well have failed to demonstrate judgment, a wider vision, an instinct for voters, campaigning and the exercise of power, but it could hardly be said that any of the rivals sparkle much either.

Some may have stronger alliances and more powerful patrons, but the party as a whole probably remains to be convinced that the public is crying out for, say, the erraticism, shallowness and opportunism of Brendan Nelson, or the dogmatism and fiscal irresponsibility of a Tony Abbott, let alone the vapidity of an Alexander Downer. Costello might well reflect that competition with any of these on more equal terms is hardly fighting with his hands tied behind his back. Of course, if he simply lapses into a sulk, as he is occasionally wont to do, that task may become more difficult.