When A Long-Time Leader's Time Is Up

Editorial - Canberra Times

It will probably happen sooner or later. The tap on the shoulder. The group of one's political peers. Explaining that the time has come to go, and to go with dignity. That a consensus has developed that you are no longer making a net contribution. A view that others could do the job better. An appeal to loyalty to the party which has stood by you so long, and to its own needs for smooth transitions and capacity to let the new guy have a chance to make a difference before he gets tested by the voters. A reminder that you have been there for a long time, without any challenge, and with considerable forbearance on the part of those who have lusted for your position. A feeling that you're now swanning it and taking things for granted. No longer contributing ideas. Not really a member of the team single-mindedly focused on the next election. Go now, with all of the credit for the good work which all of your colleagues admire, and without a knife in your back. Because others have waited long enough, and will put it there if you do not go with grace.

If this is what happens to Peter Costello, he can probably blame only himself. He has been swanning it. He has been sitting around waiting for his boss to go, so that he can effortlessly ascend to a top position he has never proven he deserves. For a long time, he was, like Paul Keating was when he was treasurer to Bob Hawke, clearly in the engine room of government, the one who was making things happen.

As Paul Keating did, from the time he realised that Bob Hawke was not about to go easily until he went to the back bench, he has sulked and damned his boss behind his back and made his impatience for the succession, and his dislike of his predecessor, more and more obvious.

But he has also stopped driving, and stopped confirming to all of those who have admired him that he is the obvious successor, indeed, perhaps, the person now with a clearer grip on what is necessary.

One of the reasons why is that he has long stopped demonstrating any ruthlessness. People now wonder whether he really has what it takes. Harold McMillan once said that a political leader had to be a bit of a butcher and to know how to use the knife. Peter Costello, from a tough school of party infighters, once showed some appetite and talent for this sort of thing. But no longer. Indeed, he has shifted from casting for Macbeth to looking like Hamlet. And, as he has done so, two things have happened. First, the man he has aspired to succeed has actually strengthened his grip on and hold over the party, not least its ideas. Second, other able and ambitious politicians have themselves developed, shown their wares, and begun to measure themselves for Costello's job. Like Costello, they have seen it as a stepping stone to John Howard's. But increasingly, some of them will think that they have the capacity to step straight into Howard's shoes when Howard goes. Indeed they will wonder whether an interposed Costello, with his manifest weaknesses, might make their ultimate success impossible.

A politician has to believe in himself or herself, and some of the potential rivals have no problem at all in thinking they could do a better job than Costello. And unlike John Howard, they do not have to have implicit understandings with Costello, about supporting him when he chooses to step down. Howard, of course, has no understanding with Costello about when that might be - as he demonstrated yet again on the weekend. But there are circumstances about Costello's blessing on Howard's return to the leadership of the Opposition in 1995 which mean that John Howard is, to a degree at least, morally bound to support Costello as his successor.

Of course, no one knows better than Peter Costello that John Howard does not always keep his promises. Or that he can and will redefine promises to mean something else. A significant display of disloyalty from Costello, for example, would clearly lead to a tearing up of the undated cheque. One sometimes suspects that Howard, and his office, are taunting Costello in the hope that he can do that. If he did, or, if provoked, brought on a spill in an obvious tantrum (as Keating did, first time about) it would not be Howard who killed Costello off. It would be Costello himself. Likewise, it sometimes seems that the small cabal of Costello spruikers want to provoke some misstep by Howard which could make Costello appear the outraged virgin. But Howard, the man who virtually wrote the textbook on disloyalty by deputy leaders, or alternative leaders, is far too cunning for that.

It has not necessarily been at all disloyal of Howard to have been developing, over the years, credible successors other than Costello. After all, Costello might fall under a bus. In this day and age, moreover, good leaders are judged in part by their succession planning. And Howard has, in any event, been so much in control that he has been, unlike Robert Menzies, always comfortable with bright and clever politicians around him.

The party has obvious alternatives to Costello. Indeed one can take one's pick, according to ideological or personality flavour. Tony Abbott. Brendan Nelson. Malcolm Turnbull. All good New South Welshmen. Alexander Downer, for those who like to live dangerously. Kevin Andrews, for the Bob Carr touch. All, of course, have pledged to support the leadership, and the deputy leadership, and ostensibly jostle for the deputy leadership only when it becomes vacant. But owing Peter Costello nothing, and increasingly entitled to wonder whether he really is entitled, really is a vote- winner, or really deserves to have his ambitions put before what many will judge to be the best interests, or prospects of the party.

All the more so when he only sits and broods. And, especially at elections, makes a few embarrassing missteps. When last he was in a petulant mood, he promised that he was going to go a bit philosophical, and to take opportunities to venture into broader fields of Liberal policy, philosophy and functions of government. That produced one speech at best, and, generally a lower profile in the community. Meanwhile many of the other senior ministers are busily achieving goals. Putting up matters for public debate - and now, rather than 2040. And John Howard is looking ever more relaxed and comfortable.