Goodwill Not Be For All Next Year

by Glenn Milne - Sunday Telegraph

The forthcoming political year will be one divided into two halves, say senior figures on both sides – the first half dominated utterly by John Howard and the second by the issue of leadership succession.

While the tempo of politics has slowed naturally in the wake of an election held just before Christmas, expect the pace to pick up sharply in the New Year after Howard returns from holidays on Australia Day.

The Prime Minister is expected to begin an all-out assault in the Senate, testing both the numbers and nerve of the Upper House with a raft of reform measures in the areas of education, industrial relations and electoral laws.

While the Coalition won't have a Senate majority in its own right until July, when newly elected Senators take their place, Howard knows he will have a strong moral argument that the Government's October 9 mandate should be respected.

Using that argument he will probe the Senate, looking to put a makeshift majority together on key issues, relying on rogue Democrat Andrew Murray and Meg Lees.

Howard wins both ways. If the Senate passes his reforms pre-July he gets his policies in place earlier. If it doesn't, the Prime Minister will be able to charge that Labor and the minor parties are both ignoring the will of the electorate.

Labor will have to tread a fine line here.

Opposition Leader Mark Latham maintains the ALP owes it to those who supported the party on October 9 to resist Howard on changes such as the proposed unfair dismissal laws.

But on each occasion the ALP acts as a Senate spoiler Howard will claim Latham has failed to learn the paramount lesson of the election – Labor has to establish its economic credentials to win government.

But before this unfolds, Howard will have to get over the hurdle of De-Anne Kelly – his junior National Party minister who is deeply embroiled in the so-called "pork rorts" affair.

Kelly faces a Senate probe into her administration of $140 million worth of regional grants said to have deliberately favoured the Coalition in the run down to the election.

Kelly is looking decidedly wobbly. Late last week she admitted to another embarrassing "clerical" error in her portfolio.

Depending on the Senate findings, Howard will have to calculate next year whether defending Kelly is worth the wastage of his political capital.

Kelly's fate aside, one thing is certain: the Prime Minister will have his major reforms and his Budget through the Senate sometime after July. This will happen quite quickly, especially if policies are bundled together in giant "omnibus" bills, as seems most likely.

Howver, the completion of the Howard agenda will act as an immediate catalyst.

Political commentators and the Liberal Party itself will begin to ask: "What next? Is the Prime Minister intent on staying on? And if so, to do what?"

Provided Peter Costello weathers any economic downturn, the question of the succession will automatically start to assert itself. As important as that may be, any problems on the Coalition side will pale compared to the leadership difficulties that are facing the opposition.

As one Labor MP says: "At least they've got two leaders. We've got none".

Unless Latham brings on a crisis of his own making – and based on past performance that's entirely possible – he will survive beyond the May Budget, simply because no other leadership candidate will be organised enough to challenge.

But in the second half of the year, if Latham has failed to raise Labor's poll ratings, the crows – if not the "roosters" – will begin to circle.

For now though, both sides of politics are on holiday like the rest of Australia.

Enjoy yours. They'll be back sooner than you think.