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Ari On The Road
Likud Prevails, Labour Tumbles, Secular Kingmaker Emerges
by Ari Sharp
January 30, 2003
The results of the Israeli election 2003 are in, and the result which was
predicted as a foregone conclusion has proven to be a foregone conclusion:
Ariel Sharon and his right wing Likud party are now clearly the biggest
party in a cluttered Knesset, and the question now is how and with whom will
the government be formed.
Despite the lack of surprises in the result, the
landscape of Israeli politics has still clearly changed.
No longer can the
Labour Party, which was in government for the first thirty years of Israel's
existence, safely assume that it is a dominant force in politics.
No longer
can the religious parties now assume that their support is crucial to the
making or breaking of Israeli governments - that honour seems now to go to a
new kingmaker, the secular Shinui Party.
As has been much discussed in Israel, Ariel Sharon has two distinct
possibilities in gathering a coalition of 61 seats necessary to form
government.
Either he can form a coalition with the religious parties, or
he can form a secular national unity government, with Shinui and Labour as
his major coalition partners. This latter option is the best one for
Sharon. For a start, the religious parties have not performed as strongly as
they would have hoped, particularly the Sephardi party Shas, which saw its
numbers nearly halve to just 9 seats. Sharon would need the support of just
about every one of the five religous or right wing parties to make this a
reality.
A right wing
coalition is also not going to be popular with either Washington or
European leaders, both of which will wish to put a Palestinian state back on
the agenda. Israeli government support for this is something which many of the right wing parties would not
tolerate.
The alternative, however, requires some "regime change" on the part of the
Israeli Labour Party. Current leader Amram Mitzna is damaged goods and
should quietly step down. Many of the contenders for his position, Benjamin
Ben-Eliezer and Shimon Peres amongst others, would be more sympathetic to
seeing the Labour Party join with the Likud in government. At least this is
what Ariel Sharon is hoping for.
The Labour Party will be faced with a
painful dilemma: either it can pursue the best interests of the Labour
Party, which would see it rebuild in opposition, or pursue the best
interests of Israel, which would be for a broad based national unity
government which will run close to a four year term. Mitzna, or more likely
his successor, will need to jump one way or the other, and make a decision
soon.
As for Shinui, this represents a victory of savvy political positioning and
a charismatic leader. Sensing the desire to blame someone, anyone, for the
country's economic woes, Shinui laid the blame at the feet of the
ultra-orthodox Heredim, reaping the political benefits of scapegoat
politics. This was coupled with a charismatic former TV personality Yosef
"Tommy" Lapid as leader. The end result was that the party has jumped from
6 to 17 seats in a single election, and significantly changed the landscape
of the political scene. Should the Likud manage to persuade the Labour
Party to join them in a national unity government, they can assume that
Shinui will also be a part of it.
Israeli Electoral Mechanics
Whilst the world watches with interest the diplomacy and gamesmanship that
will follow, political animals have an interest in the mechanics of Israel's
unique electoral system, which was in full swing on election day on Tuesday.
Israel operates on a system of attendance voting, which sees every
eligible voter allocated to one of nearly 8,000 polling places around the
country. Voting takes place between 7am and 10pm, which in the middle of a
cold Israeli winter leaves many party activists shivering in the dark at
both ends of the day.
When they enter the voting booth, voters are given an
envelope, and face a tray of ballot slips for each of the 27 parties running
in the election. The voter places the slip of their chosen party in the
envelope, seals it and places it in the ballot box. Of course, this makes
manipulation rife, with reports of party activists "hiding" the slips of
their opponents and of some polling places running short on some parties.
Come 10pm and the close of the polling places, results (actually, the
results of extensive exit polls) are broadcast immediately on TV, and the
party responses are swift. Within hours, the leader of left wing party
Meretz, Yossi Sarid, had resigned following his party's poor showing, Amram
Mitzna had conceded defeat, and Ariel Sharon had taken the unusual step of
quoting former Labour leader Yitzhak Rabin in his victory speech.
With the election over, now is the time for electioneering to end, and
diplomacy to start. The outcome will depend on whether party leaders
put partisan politics or the national interest as their highest priority.
Just how much of a cynic you are will determine which one you believe will
be most likely to succeed.
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