What's Happening In South Australia?

This week's events in South Australia may be confusing for some people. After an inconclusive election which resulted in a hung Parliament, one of the Independent members, Peter Lewis, announced that he would support the ALP.

Yet, over a week after the election, there has been no change of government, Rob Kerin is still Premier, and some Liberals are talking about hanging onto power for the next six weeks. How can this be?

Some statistics on the composition of the House of Assembly:

S.A. House of Assembly - 2002 Results
Party	Seats
Liberal	20
National	1
ALP	23
Independent	3
Total	47

In accordance with the principles of parliamentary democracy and the Westminster System, government is decided in the lower house. In South Australia, an absolute majority of 24 seats in the 47-seat House of Assembly is required for a party or coalition to govern. With 23 seats, the ALP is one short of this majority.

Because the Liberal Party has won only 20 seats, it cannot form a majority government either. Therefore, for most of week, there was widespread speculation about the voting intentions of the National Party member (assumed to be a Liberal supporter) and the three Independent members (all representing conservative electorates, and two of them ex-Liberals). If all four chose to support the Liberals, the government could remain in office. If any one of them chose to support the ALP, the government would lose.

On Thursday, Peter Lewis, the member for Hammond, announced that he would support the ALP in the new Parliament. This was a contentious decision because Lewis has represented the electorate of Hammond for over 20 years as a Liberal. Threatened with expulsion from the Liberal Party two years ago, he resigned. Contesting the seat as an independent candidate, he was re-elected on February 9.

Normally, after an election in which the government has been clearly defeated, the Premier or Prime Minister will tender the government's resignation to the Governor or the Governor-General. One of the principles of a constitutional monarchy is that the Crown's representative acts on the advice of the Premier or Prime Minister. The Premier or PM can also be called the chief adviser to the Governor or Governor-General.

When a government resigns, the last piece of advice that the leader tenders is for the Opposition Leader to be summoned to form a government.

In the South Australian situation, where the result is not clear, different dynamics come into play.

In Victoria in 1999, once the three independent members signed their agreement with the ALP, the then Premier, Jeff Kennett, accepted the decision and tendered his resignation to the Governor. The Bracks Labor government was sworn into office and Parliament met a couple of weeks later.

In South Australia, the Liberal government is aiming to test their support on the floor of the House of Assembly in a couple of weeks time. This will force the ALP and Peter Lewis to move a motion of no-confidence against them. If carried, the government would be defeated on the floor of the House. It would then resign.

What is unclear is whether the Liberals may attempt to force another election. It is possible that Kerin could recommend the dissolution of the House of Assembly if it votes against him. Whether the Governor would accept this advice is not certain. Rejection of such advice would again bring the vice-regal office into the centre of political debate.

There are, of course, political reasons for Kerin wanting to test his support in Parliament. Peter Lewis is regarded on all sides as a maverick, unpredictable, political player. It is possible, although not likely, that he would buckle under sustained political and public pressure. His electorate is a traditionally conservative rural area where his decision to back the ALP has met with considerable criticism.

From the government's perspective, remaining in office is the bird in the hand that's better than two in the bush. In other words, the government may reason: "let's stay in office and who knows what might unfold over the next couple of weeks."

The situation is complicated by the impending visit of the Queen to South Australia. Some feel that the monarch should not be confronted with a state in constitutional and political limbo.

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