Crean, Macklin, McMullan, Latham: Where Now For The ALP?

The ALP's defeat in the election and Kim Beazley's decision to become a "humble backbencher" means that Australia's oldest political party will now engage in the task of choosing a new leader.

Under ALP rules, the only people who have a say in the election of the parliamentary leader are the members of the Caucus. The Caucus consists of every ALP member of the House of Representatives and the Senate. On current projections, this is likely to be around 88 men and women.

The Caucus will not meet for at least a week until the results in all electorates are finalised.

Speculation about the leadership centres on the current deputy leader, Simon Crean. A former President of the Australian Council of Trade Unions, Crean is the son of the first Treasurer in the Whitlam government, Frank Crean. Simon's brother, David, is the Treasurer in the Bacon Labor government in Tasmania. Crean entered the House of Representatives in 1990 as the member for the Victorian electorate of Hotham and has been deputy leader since 1998.

Crean belongs to the Victorian right-wing faction, Labor Unity. With the support of the controlling right-wing factions in New South Wales and Queensland, he is likely to be the only viable candidate for leader.

There has been some talk of the Shadow Minister for Health, Jenny Macklin, the member for JagaJaga, as a future leader, but she is unlikely to succeed because she is a member of the Left faction. The Right cannot be expected to tolerate giving the leader's job to the Left.

Macklin could be chosen as deputy leader, but this presents another difficulty because Macklin is also from Victora and it is not usual for a party to have both leadership positions filled with people from the same State.

Another name mentioned is Bob McMullan, the member for Fraser in the Australian Capital Territory. McMullan is a former National Secretary of the ALP. He was a key player in the ALP's election campaign this time around, particularly in the area of television advertising. Speaking on television on the weekend, McMullan ruled himself out as a leadership contender. His lack of factional alignment counts against him as well, although he is a strong possibility for deputy leader.

Over the years, the member for Werriwa, Mark Latham, has often been mentioned as a leadership contender. Once employed by Gough Whitlam, and representing Whitlam's old seat, Latham is a disciple of the Tony Blair brand of politics. His notion of the "Third Way" has been articulated in books and newspaper articles over recent years, particularly since he chose to resign from the shadow ministry after disagreements with Beazley's office over Education policy in the 1998 election.

Latham is something of a character in politics and is seen by some as having the necessary larrikinism combined with intellectual depth that the ALP needs. However, he distinguished himself during the campaign by advocating the return of corporal punishment in schools, a move that will not endear him to the party faithful. Details surrounding an altercation he had with a taxi driver earlier in the year were leaked to the media during the election campaign, although whether this has damaged him to any extent is problematical.

Other names to watch in the coming days are Wayne Swan, Stephen Smith, Craig Emerson and the ambitious Kevin Rudd.

A likely leadership team is Crean and Michael Lee, the member for Dobell, provided Lee can hold his seat. More likely is for Crean to be paired with the Left's Jenny Macklin, although she is also from Victoria.

It has been argued recently, most notably by Laurie Oakes in The Bulletin, that the party needs to jump to the next generation of parliamentarians, such as Macklin, Lindsay Tanner, Latham and others, but in reality the job is Crean's for the taking.

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