Labor Clings To Narrowest Of Leads In Aston; Result Hinges On Postal And Absentee Votes; Liberals Likely To Prevail
July 14, 2001
The Labor Party candidate, Kieran Boland, has 50.01% of the two-party-preferred vote at the close of counting in today's Aston by-election. There has been a 4.25% swing against the Liberal Party's candidate, Chris Pearce, but the outcome of the election depends on the counting of postal, pre-poll and provisional ballots. These are likely to favour the Liberal Party and deliver it victory.
The result, repeated nationally, would see Kim Beazley elected to government with a substantial majority.
The Liberal Party's primary vote has fallen 8.08% to 39.88% in an ominous sign of voter discontent with the government. In contrast, the ALP's primary vote fell by 2.18% to 37.09%.
The Australian Democrats came third in the contest, polling 8.41%, an increase of 0.99%. Predictions of a surge in Democrat support due to the recent election of Senator Natasha Stott-Despoja have not eventuated.
Eleven of the 15 candidates contesting the by-election have polled less than 4% of the vote and will lose their $350 deposit. Ten of the candidates polled less than 2% of the primary vote.
| Aston By-Election - July 14, 2001 |
| Candidate | Party |
Votes |
% |
Swing |
|---|
| Peter O'LOUGHLIN |
Ind |
936 |
1.37 |
+1.37 |
| Chris PEARCE |
Liberal |
27,316 |
39.88 |
-8.08 |
| Mark WARD |
Ind |
114 |
0.17 |
+0.17 |
| Mark SLOAN |
Ind |
495 |
0.72 |
+0.72 |
| Mick KIR |
Greens |
1,678 |
2.45 |
+2.45 |
| Steve RASKOVY |
Ind |
193 |
0.28 |
+0.28 |
| Doug MITCHELL |
CEC |
312 |
0.46 |
+0.46 |
| Luke James Chamberlain |
Liberals For Forests |
612 |
0.89 |
+0.89 |
| Pierre Harcourt |
Australian Democrats |
5,763 |
8.41 |
+0.99 |
| June Scott |
One Nation |
1,226 |
1.79 |
-0.97 |
| Garry SCATES |
Ind |
3,259 |
4.76 |
+4.76 |
| Josephine COX |
Socialist Alliance |
307 |
0.45 |
+0.45 |
| Tim PETHERBRIDGE |
Hope |
207 |
0.30 |
+0.30 |
| Graeme DUNSTAN |
HEMP |
670 |
0.98 |
+0.98 |
| Kieran BOLAND |
ALP |
25,400 |
37.09 |
-2.18 |
| Two Candidate Preferred |
| Kieran Boland |
ALP |
50.01% |
4.25% |
| Chris Pearce |
Liberal |
49.99% |
-4.25% |
The outcome of the by-election now rests on the counting on Monday of postal, pre-poll and provisional votes. In the last election in 1998, 14.6% of electors cast votes in these ways. The Liberal Party polled 56% of all such votes. A repeat of this in the by-election will easily deliver the seat to Chris Pearce.
The informal vote in the by-election was 5.05%, an increase of 2.22%. Scrutineers have reported to VCEpolitics.com that around a third of informal ballots were either blank, defaced or numbered only a handful of candidates. Most informal ballots resulted from defective numbering.
Other scrutineers report a sizable number of voters ignoring how-to-vote cards and deciding their own preferences, even those voting for the ALP and Liberal candidates.
The candidate at the top of the ballot paper, Peter O'Loughlin, has polled 1.37% of the primary vote, of which around half is probably a donkey vote.
An interesting feature of the by-election is the uneven nature of the swing. In the Labor-voting Bayswater area, the swing to the ALP was around 4%, whereas parts of Heathmont, traditionally Liberal-voting, swung up to 7% to Labor. Conversely, parts of Ferntree Gully, traditionally Labor-voting, recorded only small swings away from the Liberals. This suggests continuing problems for the Liberal Party in holding their base vote, as was seen in the Ryan by-election last March.
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