Opinion Polls Show ALP Leading In Canberra and States
September 27, 2000
Morgan Polling Figures
August 2000 |
|---|
Govt. |
ALP 2PP% |
L-NP 2PP % |
Victoria |
59 |
41 |
NSW |
60 |
40 |
QLD |
58 |
42 |
S.A. |
56 |
44 |
W.A. |
56 |
44 |
|
Opinion polls published this week indicate that the ALP is comfortably ahead of the coalition in all mainland states, but the polls differ in their assessment of the federal political landscape.
The Roy Morgan polls published in the latest edition of The Bulletin show the ALP ahead of the coalition on a two-party-preferred basis in 5 States. The ALP leads by 56-44 in South Australia and Western Australia where elections are due in the next year. It leads with 58, 59 and 60 percent of the vote in Queensland, Victoria and New South Wales respectively.
The polling figures are very similar to those published in January and suggest that the ALP has maintained a commanding lead over the conservative parties. The statistics must be viewed in the light of the ALP's strong win over the coalition in NSW last year and its defeat of the Kennett government in Victoria. Since then, the ALP has won impressive victories in Victorian by-elections in Burwood and Benalla, and federally in Isaacs.
Federally, the ALP has remained ahead of the coalition throughout this year. According to Rob Chalmers in his newsletter, Inside Canberra: "The Reuters Poll Trend, which
bases its figures on the latest Newspoll and Morgan polls has, on a two-party preferred basis, Labor on 54.7 points and the Government on 45.3, a massive lead of 9.3 points. Reuters uses a statistical tool, the Henderson moving average, to smooth polling volatility. If you take the less fancy poll average, Labor enjoys a two-party preferred lead of 10.1 points. Beazley is now only four points behind Howard as preferred PM, the second lowest figure since October last year."
Even allowing for a redistribution in New South Wales, Western Australia and the Northern Territory, the Howard government would lose office with a swing of around 1%. It needs to be remembered that the government was elected with a minority of the two-party-preferred vote in 1998. It has little room for electoral error in the lead-up to the election which must be held by the end of next year. A loss of 6 seats would see it out of power.
One of those seats is Ballarat, where the ALP Shadow Cabinet met on Monday. As Alan Ramsey points out in his Sydney Morning Herald column today: "Being a politician is a bugger at this time. Go to the Olympics and John Howard gets monstered for tainting the glory of the athletes. Stay away from the Olympics and Kim Beazley gets monstered for not being there to cheer them on."
Opinion polls published this week show differing assessments of the impact of Howard's behaviour - the "unofficial cheerleader" as he described himself last week - on his approval ratings. The AC Nielsen AgePoll, published this week shows the ALP's primary vote support up to 43%, compared to 38% for the coalition. On a two-party-preferred basis, the ALP was ahead 54% to 46%, a one-point increase on polls taken in May, July and August, and 3 points up on the party's result in 1998.
The poll, conducted over last weekend, after one week of the Olympics, showed Howard's approval rating down 2 points to 49% and Beazley's rating up 1 point to 48%.
A poll published in The Australian this week rates Howard's approval at 48% and Beazley's at 45%. This represents an increase of 9% for the Prime Minister. It puts the coalition primary vote level with the ALP on 44%, a rise of 3% for the coalition and a decline of 2% for the ALP. Whilst the paper did not publish a two-party figure, distribution of Green and Democrat preferences would undoubtedly give the ALP a winning margin.
Beazley's attitude to the Olympics - he has only attended the opening ceremony - may well show he has a firmer grip on electoral realities than Howard. Over the past two weeks, the Australian dollar has plunged on the currency markets, the political crisis over petrol prices has escalated and speculation about higher interest rates has intensified. Previous talk of an early election seems very misplaced now.
The Prime Minister's continuing stubbornness on the Aboriginal reconciliation issue, highlighted again this week in his response to Cathy Freeman's gold medal win, coupled with recent government criticism of the United Nations treaty system and opposition to IVF treatment for lesbian women, shows that he is acutely aware of the importance of re-capturing the votes over 900,000 Australians, particularly those in Queensland and New South Wales, who voted for One Nation in 1998.
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