From: <Saved by Microsoft Internet Explorer 5>
Subject: Guardian Unlimited | Special reports | Wargame exposed gaping hole in Pentagon strategy
Date: Wed, 26 Sep 2001 11:09:29 +1000
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href=3D"http://www.guardian.co.uk/waronterror/archive/0,1361,554661,00.ht=
ml"><B><FONT=20
            color=3D#ffffff face=3DGeneva,Arial,sans-serif =
size=3D1>Terrorism crisis=20
            archive</FONT></B></A></TD>
          <TD align=3Dright bgColor=3D#006699 height=3D18><IMG =
border=3D0 height=3D8=20
            =
src=3D"http://image.guardian.co.uk/global/white_right_10x8.gif"=20
            width=3D10></TD></TR>
        <TR>
          <TD bgColor=3D#ffffff colSpan=3D4 =
height=3D6></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><BR><BR><!-- end arrow trail module =
--><!-- End trailblock widget ---><BR><!-- Vignette V/5 Tue Sep 25 =
03:00:59 2001 --><!-- Start auto trailblock widget --->
      <TABLE border=3D0 cellPadding=3D0 cellSpacing=3D0 width=3D"100%">
        <TBODY>
        <TR>
          <TD align=3Dleft bgColor=3D#006699 height=3D18 =
vAlign=3Dcenter>&nbsp;<FONT=20
            color=3D#ffffff face=3DGeneva,Arial,sans-serif =
size=3D2><B>In this=20
            section</B></FONT></TD></TR>
        <TR align=3Dleft vAlign=3Dtop>
          <TD><FONT face=3DGeneva,Arial,sans-serif size=3D1><A=20
            =
href=3D"http://www.guardian.co.uk/waronterror/story/0,1361,557565,00.html=
">Bin=20
            Laden issues call to arms</A></FONT><BR><BR></TD></TR>
        <TR align=3Dleft vAlign=3Dtop>
          <TD><FONT face=3DGeneva,Arial,sans-serif size=3D1><A=20
            =
href=3D"http://www.guardian.co.uk/waronterror/story/0,1361,557567,00.html=
">How=20
            companies plan to cope with =
crises</A></FONT><BR><BR></TD></TR>
        <TR align=3Dleft vAlign=3Dtop>
          <TD><FONT face=3DGeneva,Arial,sans-serif size=3D1><A=20
            =
href=3D"http://www.guardian.co.uk/waronterror/story/0,1361,557593,00.html=
">On=20
            the brink of war: Now what?</A></FONT><BR><BR></TD></TR>
        <TR align=3Dleft vAlign=3Dtop>
          <TD><FONT face=3DGeneva,Arial,sans-serif size=3D1><A=20
            =
href=3D"http://www.guardian.co.uk/waronterror/story/0,1361,557600,00.html=
">Radio=20
            station cans exclusive with Taliban =
leader</A></FONT><BR><BR></TD></TR>
        <TR align=3Dleft vAlign=3Dtop>
          <TD><FONT face=3DGeneva,Arial,sans-serif size=3D1><A=20
            =
href=3D"http://www.guardian.co.uk/waronterror/story/0,1361,557615,00.html=
">Portrait=20
            of the terrorist as a young man</A></FONT><BR><BR></TD></TR>
        <TR align=3Dleft vAlign=3Dtop>
          <TD><FONT face=3DGeneva,Arial,sans-serif size=3D1><A=20
            =
href=3D"http://www.guardian.co.uk/waronterror/story/0,1361,557632,00.html=
">Bite=20
            the bullet and target Iraq</A></FONT><BR><BR></TD></TR>
        <TR align=3Dleft vAlign=3Dtop>
          <TD><FONT face=3DGeneva,Arial,sans-serif size=3D1><A=20
            =
href=3D"http://www.guardian.co.uk/waronterror/story/0,1361,557639,00.html=
">Leader:=20
            New Yorkers look to Coventry as =
model</A></FONT><BR><BR></TD></TR>
        <TR align=3Dleft vAlign=3Dtop>
          <TD><FONT face=3DGeneva,Arial,sans-serif size=3D1><A=20
            =
href=3D"http://www.guardian.co.uk/waronterror/story/0,1361,557661,00.html=
">21st=20
            century arsenal</A></FONT><BR><BR></TD></TR>
        <TR align=3Dleft vAlign=3Dtop>
          <TD><FONT face=3DGeneva,Arial,sans-serif size=3D1><A=20
            =
href=3D"http://www.guardian.co.uk/waronterror/story/0,1361,557678,00.html=
">Wargame=20
            exposed gaping hole in Pentagon =
strategy</A></FONT><BR><BR></TD></TR>
        <TR align=3Dleft vAlign=3Dtop>
          <TD><FONT face=3DGeneva,Arial,sans-serif size=3D1><A=20
            =
href=3D"http://www.guardian.co.uk/waronterror/story/0,1361,557709,00.html=
">Letters:=20
            Bring back parliament</A></FONT><BR><BR></TD></TR>
        <TR align=3Dleft vAlign=3Dtop>
          <TD><FONT face=3DGeneva,Arial,sans-serif size=3D1><A=20
            =
href=3D"http://www.guardian.co.uk/waronterror/story/0,1361,557707,00.html=
">Letters:=20
            ID cards won't help</A></FONT><BR><BR></TD></TR>
        <TR align=3Dleft vAlign=3Dtop>
          <TD><FONT face=3DGeneva,Arial,sans-serif size=3D1><A=20
            =
href=3D"http://www.guardian.co.uk/waronterror/story/0,1361,557696,00.html=
">Oil=20
            prices tumble in fear of slump</A></FONT><BR><BR></TD></TR>
        <TR align=3Dleft vAlign=3Dtop>
          <TD><FONT face=3DGeneva,Arial,sans-serif size=3D1><A=20
            =
href=3D"http://www.guardian.co.uk/waronterror/story/0,1361,557695,00.html=
">Iran=20
            then and now</A></FONT><BR><BR></TD></TR>
        <TR align=3Dleft vAlign=3Dtop>
          <TD><FONT face=3DGeneva,Arial,sans-serif size=3D1><A=20
            =
href=3D"http://www.guardian.co.uk/waronterror/story/0,1361,557693,00.html=
">Letters:=20
            For the US</A></FONT><BR><BR></TD></TR>
        <TR align=3Dleft vAlign=3Dtop>
          <TD><FONT face=3DGeneva,Arial,sans-serif size=3D1><A=20
            =
href=3D"http://www.guardian.co.uk/waronterror/story/0,1361,557691,00.html=
">Iran=20
            takes a wary step towards the=20
      west</A></FONT><BR><BR></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><!-- /End auto =
trailblock ---><BR></TD>
    <TD></TD>
    <TD vAlign=3Dtop><!-- Vignette V/5 Tue Sep 25 03:03:05 2001 --><FONT =

      face=3DGeneva,Arial,sans-serif size=3D2>The campaign </FONT><BR>
      <HR noShade SIZE=3D1>
      <FONT face=3Darial,helvetica,sans-serif size=3D5><B>Wargame =
exposed gaping=20
      hole in Pentagon strategy</B></FONT> <BR><BR><FONT=20
      face=3Darial,helvetica,sans-serif size=3D3>Despite a shift in =
vision, US looks=20
      unready for its foe<BR><BR><A=20
      href=3D"http://www.guardian.co.uk/waronterror">Special report: =
terrorism=20
      crisis</A> </FONT><BR><BR><FONT face=3DGeneva,Arial,sans-serif=20
      size=3D2><B>Julian Borger in Washington<BR>Tuesday September 25, =
2001<BR><A=20
      href=3D"http://www.guardian.co.uk/">The Guardian</A></B>=20
      <BR><BR></FONT><FONT face=3DGeneva,Arial,sans-serif size=3D2>When =
terror came=20
      out of a clear blue sky on September 11, some of the Pentagon's =
top brass=20
      were given a jolting reminder of a wargame they had recently =
played. In=20
      the game, the US was pitted against a zealous, decentralised =
terror=20
      organisation very like Osama bin Laden's al-Qaida, and the US =
lost.=20
      <P>Each time the virtual US forces thought they had scored a blow =
against=20
      the terror organisation, codenamed Orange in the exercise, it =
would=20
      regenerate itself to strike on another front. It emerged from the =
campaign=20
      more or less unscathed.=20
      <P>That was four years ago, but some of the military strategists =
who=20
      helped to organise the game believe the Pentagon failed to learn =
the=20
      lessons the wargame provided, and in interviews with the Guardian=20
      yesterday they said the US military was still a long way from =
readiness to=20
      fight the adversary it now faced.=20
      <P>As a result, the shock of the September 11 attack has =
considerably=20
      strengthened the hand of the defence secretary, Donald Rumsfeld, =
who took=20
      office promising a root and branch transformation of US forces, =
known in=20
      Pentagon parlance as the Revolution in Military Affairs (RMA). Mr =
Rumsfeld=20
      ran into strong resistance from the armed services chiefs who were =
fearful=20
      that the big defence projects they had committed themselves to, =
such as=20
      new aircraft carriers and a joint strike fighter aircraft, would =
be=20
      scrapped.=20
      <P>That row over priorities was abruptly ended by the attack. Not =
only is=20
      Mr Rumsfeld's vision now seen as prescient, but there will be so =
much more=20
      defence money to go around that there will not have to be a =
trade-off=20
      between the old way of doing things and the new. The Pentagon will =
be able=20
      to afford both.=20
      <P>In the Pentagon's quadrennial defence review, whose overall =
direction=20
      has been described to the Guardian before its release this Sunday, =
a lot=20
      more resources will be devoted to unconventional forms of warfare =
to=20
      combat the "asymmetrical" challenge posed by groups such as =
al-Qaida.=20
      <P>The 1997 wargame was fought under the auspices of the Army War =
College.=20
      According to Doug Johnson, a strategic studies professor involved =
in the=20
      exercise, the army lost because "it didn't want to play that =
game".=20
      <P><B>Frustrated</B><BR>
      <P>The army brass, Dr Johnson said, "were intent on fighting a =
variation=20
      of a war against large tank armies on the central plains of =
somewhere". At=20
      one point, the Pentagon officers involved became so frustrated =
with their=20
      elusive opponents that they asked for the game organisers to have =
a=20
      friendly government's armoured battalion defect to the other side. =
"They=20
      did it to give someone to blast," Dr Johnson said. "Everyone went =
away=20
      feeling viscerally satisfied."=20
      <P>As a result, they missed the point. The terror organisation =
still had=20
      most of its cells in place, and a functioning financial network.=20
      <P>"Within the contours of that particular game, the American =
forces and=20
      their allies simply weren't configured to deal with an enemy like =
the one=20
      we created," said Steven Metz, the head of the Army War College's =
regional=20
      strategy and planning department.=20
      <P>Dr Johnson argues that the lessons taught by the wargame and by =
the=20
      situation the US military finds itself in are the same. "What we =
need is=20
      more stuff for the soldier on the ground," he said. "Cruise =
missiles are=20
      interesting, but they don't go and knock on doors. They tend to =
blow up=20
      the whole building."=20
      <P>What is needed instead, he says, is technology that the =
infantryman or=20
      special forces soldier can use, to tell him in an instant where =
his men=20
      are and where the enemy is. The army has been working on digital =
displays=20
      built into army helmets, but the project had been slowed by the =
weight of=20
      the battery required.=20
      <P>The upgraded infantryman is part of the defence review carried =
out this=20
      year on Mr Rumsfeld's behalf by Andrew Marshall, a radical =
military=20
      thinker widely regarded as the godfather of RMA. Both the defence=20
      secretary and Mr Marshall argued that future conflicts would be =
unlikely=20
      to involve conventional opponents with arrays of tanks and =
squadrons of=20
      aircraft.=20
      <P>Instead the US would face "streetfighter states" which would =
use=20
      "asymmetrical" tactics aimed at America's water supplies or oil =
wells. The=20
      attacks would come without warning and the goal of RMA was to be =
ready to=20
      counter such threats instantly. The strategy would rely less on =
big=20
      military "platforms" such as armoured divisions or aircraft =
carriers but=20
      would involve an extraordinarily expensive anti-ballistic missile =
system,=20
      National Missile Defence (NMD), which would spot incoming missiles =
and=20
      knock them out.=20
      <P><B>Resented</B><BR>
      <P>The army, navy and air force chiefs resented the diminutive,=20
      79-year-old Mr Marshall and his schemes. The row slowed down the=20
      Rumsfeld-Marshall plan but - according to Pentagon officials - did =
not=20
      knock it off the tracks. According to one source, the defence =
review=20
      expected on Sunday envisages a big increase in expenditure on =
asymmetrical=20
      threats, including counter-terrorist and counter-guerrilla forces, =
as well=20
      as units dedicated to defending against nuclear, biological and =
chemical=20
      threats. "The gist of what the review says is that we need all our =

      conventional forces, as well as a broader range of unconventional =
forces,"=20
      the official said.=20
      <P>Loren Thompson, a military strategist at the Lexington =
Institute, said=20
      the effect of the September 11 surprise attack would be to =
increase the=20
      defence budget, probably by a third to $400bn in 2003, and to =
accelerate=20
      movement towards RMA.=20
      <P>"Mr Rumsfeld's priorities have been vindicated greatly," Mr =
Thompson=20
      said. "Before he had to make a choice between conventional and=20
      non-conventional. He no longer has that problem."=20
      <P>However, since September 11 not all elements of the =
Rumsfeld-Marshall=20
      plan look equally relevant. NMD would have been of no use against =
domestic=20
      airliners. Marcus Corbin, an analyst at the Centre for Defence =
Information=20
      in Washington, argues that RMA still does not meet the new =
realities.=20
      "What is important now is how good is your human intelligence, and =
how=20
      good are your diplomatic relations with neighbouring countries so =
you can=20
      base operations on their soil," Mr Corbin said. "RMA is nice but =
when it=20
      comes to a question of priorities, Bin Laden has shown the RMA is =
still=20
      going in the wrong direction." </FONT><BR><!-- Vignette V/5 Tue =
Sep 25 03:03:08 2001 --><!-- Start article trailblock widget =
--><BR><FONT=20
      face=3DGeneva,Arial,sans-serif size=3D2><B>Special =
reports</B><BR><A=20
      =
href=3D"http://www.guardian.co.uk/waronterror/0,1361,554660,00.html">Terr=
orism=20
      crisis</A><BR><A=20
      =
href=3D"http://www.guardian.co.uk/wtccrash/0,1300,550197,00.html">Attack =
on=20
      America</A><BR><A=20
      =
href=3D"http://www.guardian.co.uk/afghanistan/0,1284,548335,00.html">Afgh=
anistan</A><BR><A=20
      =
href=3D"http://www.guardian.co.uk/pakistan/0,2759,180809,00.html">Pakista=
n</A><BR><BR><B>Interactive=20
      guide</B><BR><A=20
      href=3D"http://www.guardian.co.uk/flash/0,5860,553990,00.html">See =
how the=20
      world has responded to the=20
      crisis</A><BR><BR><B>Timeline</B><BR>20.09.2001: <A=20
      =
href=3D"http://www.guardian.co.uk/waronterror/story/0,1361,555865,00.html=
">Terror=20
      and its aftermath</A><BR><BR><B>Related =
articles</B><BR>24.09.2001: <A=20
      =
href=3D"http://www.guardian.co.uk/waronterror/story/0,1361,557028,00.html=
">Trapped=20
      in the dark ages, a ragtag army welcomes the US =
bombs</A><BR>24.09.2001:=20
      <A=20
      =
href=3D"http://www.guardian.co.uk/waronterror/story/0,1361,557075,00.html=
">Taliban=20
      claim to have downed US unmanned spy plane</A><BR>24.09.2001: <A=20
      =
href=3D"http://www.guardian.co.uk/waronterror/story/0,1361,557069,00.html=
">Fighting=20
      in mountains 'will bring higher casualties'</A><BR>24.09.2001: <A=20
      =
href=3D"http://www.guardian.co.uk/waronterror/story/0,1361,557032,00.html=
">Echoes=20
      of Vietnam stir US campuses</A><BR>24.09.2001: <A=20
      =
href=3D"http://www.guardian.co.uk/waronterror/story/0,1361,556917,00.html=
">Up=20
      to 11,000 trained in Bin Laden terror camps</A><BR><BR><B>Comment =
and=20
      analysis</B><BR>24.09.2001: <A=20
      =
href=3D"http://www.guardian.co.uk/comment/story/0,3604,556912,00.html">Pe=
ter=20
      Preston - The pursuit of Bin Laden could soon be a=20
      sideshow</A><BR>24.09.2001: <A=20
      =
href=3D"http://www.guardian.co.uk/comment/story/0,3604,556914,00.html">Na=
omi=20
      Klein - Fuel for terror</A><BR>24.09.2001: <A=20
      =
href=3D"http://www.guardian.co.uk/comment/story/0,3604,556911,00.html">Ro=
y=20
      Hattersley - Democratic life must carry on</A><BR>24.09.2001: <A=20
      =
href=3D"http://www.guardian.co.uk/waronterror/story/0,1361,557062,00.html=
">Leader=20
      - Recall parliament</A><BR>24.09.2001: <A=20
      =
href=3D"http://www.guardian.co.uk/waronterror/story/0,1361,557120,00.html=
">Leader=20
      - Europe to the rescue</A><BR><BR><B>Press =
review</B><BR>24.09.2001: <A=20
      =
href=3D"http://www.guardian.co.uk/wtccrash/story/0,1300,556814,00.html">R=
oy=20
      Greenslade on British columnists' response</A><BR><A=20
      =
href=3D"http://www.guardian.co.uk/Media/attack/0,1301,550543,00.html">Spe=
cial=20
      report from =
MediaGuardian.co.uk</A><BR><BR><B>Letters</B><BR>24.09.2001:=20
      <A=20
      =
href=3D"http://www.guardian.co.uk/waronterror/story/0,1361,557030,00.html=
">A=20
      military response is =
counter-productive</A><BR><BR><B>Talk</B><BR><A=20
      href=3D"http://talk.guardian.co.uk/WebX?13@@.464">Debate the =
issues on our=20
      talkboards</A><BR><BR><BR><!-- End article trailblock widget =
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      <HR SIZE=3D1 CLEAR=3D"2">
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href=3D"http://www.guardian.co.uk/Print/0,3858,4263802,00.html">Printable=
=20
      version</A> | <A=20
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href=3D"http://www.guardian.co.uk/Widgets/Read_It_Later/TR/1,4694,4263802=
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      target=3DLater>See saved stories</A> </FONT><BR><BR><!-- /interp =
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