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From: Subject: canberra.yourguide Date: Mon, 24 Sep 2001 09:44:39 +1000 MIME-Version: 1.0 Content-Type: multipart/related; boundary="----=_NextPart_000_000D_01C144DD.87652AE0"; type="text/html" X-MimeOLE: Produced By Microsoft MimeOLE V5.00.2615.200 This is a multi-part message in MIME format. ------=_NextPart_000_000D_01C144DD.87652AE0 Content-Type: text/html; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable Content-Location: http://canberra.yourguide.com.au/detail.asp?class=your%20say&subclass=general&category=columnists%20analysis&story_id=90897&y=2001&m=9 canberra.yourguide

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Military option has its = dangers
By = MARTIN=20 WOOLACOTT

THERE = is always a=20 temptation to craft ideal solutions to difficult problems = and then=20 to refuse to accept what is actually decided because it does = not=20 conform to the ideal. Soon, unless Osama bin Laden is handed = over or=20 it becomes clear he has left the country, people in the = west, and=20 indeed people all over the world, will be faced with the = reality of=20 military action in Afghanistan. We can say now that it will = not=20 conform to the standards which have been set by anxious = followers of=20 American policy.

This=20 is not so much because the United States Government is bent = on some=20 spectacular or excessive retaliation, since the evidence for = that=20 has, thankfully, been diminishing. It is that no military = action=20 could possibly meet the requirements that have been laid = down.

A military = response that=20 will not anger Muslims, that will not endanger the political = balance=20 in Pakistan, that will not have unpredictable consequences = in=20 Afghanistan, and that will not be exploited by the jihadists = and=20 other extreme Islamist groups, is a chimera. Any military = response=20 must do these things to some degree.

Then there are the further requirements = that the=20 response must be shaped to avoid an actual defeat for = American and=20 allied forces, must not inflict heavy casualties on Afghan = civilians=20 and must be organised in such a way that a failure to = capture or=20 kill Osama bin Laden will not be seen as a disaster.

Yet in the = nature of these=20 things, none of these objectives can be guaranteed. Those = making the=20 decisions in Washington have had, it would be fair to say, = an=20 impossible task, and what they come up with is bound to be=20 imperfect. It has been right for America's allies to argue = for=20 restraint. How much they were needed is not clear.

The debate = among the=20 American policy makers, hidden but fierce, seems to have = ended in=20 victory for the relatively moderate side represented by = Colin Powell=20 and, in this instance, by Condoleezza Rice.

It might have = done so=20 without European and other representations. But while being = glad of=20 this "moderate" outcome, it is obvious it could still lead = to a=20 military effort that could go very wrong.

Although it = was absolutely=20 right to make these representations, the moment is near when = the=20 time for consultation and playing some part in the = decision-making=20 will be over.

An=20 operation or a series of operations will be going forward. = They will=20 be politically and militarily risky and they will play into = the=20 hands of the extremists, at least to some extent.

This may well = be just what=20 Osama bin Laden wants. But those who have serious doubts = about the=20 value of military action will have to ask themselves some = hard=20 questions.

The first=20 is whether it was remotely realistic to argue that there = should be=20 no military response at all at this stage. It is = hyper-logical to=20 argue that the people of the US should completely still the = natural=20 impulse to move against those who caused such suffering. = America is=20 a country which tends to believe there is an answer to = everything, a=20 country which spends billions on its military forces, and a = country=20 which has been grievously hurt. Even if, in an ideal world, = the=20 smartest thing to do might be to avoid military action at = this=20 juncture, we have to accept that a military response of some = kind is=20 necessary for America.

In showing solidarity you cannot easily = pick and=20 choose, and if support of military action is at this moment = what the=20 Americans want, you cannot fend it off by saying you will = introduce=20 identity cards.

The=20 second hard question is whether doubts about military action = should=20 be swallowed in the interest of promoting the long-lived = American=20 re-engagement with the world that now seems possible. There = is in=20 prospect an international program which, with luck and good=20 management, will attend not just to the immediate security = of=20 western countries, but to some of the world's fundamental = ills.=20

Many = Americans,=20 including some soldiers, are already aware of how limited a = part=20 conventional military force has to play. General Wesley = Clark, the=20 former Nato commander, recently spoke of the myriad forms of = cooperation he believed will be necessary as having priority = over=20 strike operations.

The mass of arrangements with many = countries which=20 America has had to put together to make military action = possible has=20 been an exercise in multilateralism that is its own lesson = for the=20 Bush administration.

That is equally true of the longer term=20 cooperative action on security and other matters that is = envisaged.=20 Beyond that the realisation may be dawning that political = problems=20 left to fester are problems that get worse, and that no = country can=20 protect itself completely from the consequences.

A government = which had=20 begun to think it would do everything important on its own=20 discovered that the things that were most important to it = could only=20 be done with others. The US, and other countries as well, = may be=20 moving to a re-ordering of priorities long delayed but is = all the=20 more necessary for that reason.

It is true that some of the dangers of = military=20 action are really only aspects of dangers that already = exist. It was=20 already the case that the Taliban was driving its own = battered=20 population into even deeper despair and that the continued = existence=20 of this government had become a huge problem for the world, = if only=20 in terms of refugees.

It was already true that Pakistan had = bankrupted=20 itself in vain pursuit of strategic leverage against India = and had=20 allowed its own extremists to grow in power to the point = where the=20 auguries for the next stage in its political life are not = good.=20

We are = left with the=20 paradox that something very constructive may possibly come = out of=20 tragedy but that this possibility is unavoidably connected = with a=20 military operation that will throw up problems even if it is = brief=20 and successful, as we must hope it will be. The = Guardian

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