Economist.com

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multipart/alternative; boundary="----=_NextPart_001_02C2_01C14454.9AFE8E40" ------=_NextPart_001_02C2_01C14454.9AFE8E40 Content-Type: text/html; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable Content-Location: http://www.economist.com/PrinterFriendly.cfm?Story_ID=788398 Economist.com

=20

The next = steps=20

The battle=20 ahead
Sep 20th 2001
From The = Economist print=20 edition

To fight will be hard. But not to fight would be = worse

IT WILL be = long. It will=20 cause anguish and arguments, both with allies and with others. It will = involve=20 more casualties, both military and civilian. It is as hard to define the = exact=20 objective as it will be to tell whether or when that objective has been=20 achieved. It will be fraught with risks, both directly for the forces = involved=20 and indirectly for many of the governments and relationships that will = be=20 affected. Yet the battle that President George Bush and his advisers are = now=20 planning and preparing is nevertheless a battle that cannot be avoided. = It must=20 be fought, and won.

Many are = afraid of the=20 battle that lies ahead. Some are horribly, even obscenely wrong in their = reasons=20 for objecting to it, notably those who blame America itself for the = horrors that=20 were inflicted upon it last week in New York and Washington, DC (see arti= cle).=20 But others are understandably afraid, and are opposed to it for = nobler-sounding=20 reasons. They think retaliation would be to stoop as low as the = terrorists. They=20 think it would be wrong for more ordinary people to die, in Afghanistan = or in a=20 new cycle of violence elsewhere. They argue that it would be better to = do=20 nothing beyond self-protection, because that would deprive the = terrorists of the=20 satisfaction of having provoked a reaction, especially a reaction whose = chances=20 of success look daunting. They want peace, not war.

The sad = truth of human=20 relations, however, is that you cannot get peace without fighting for = it. Doing=20 nothing would invite far worse consequences than doing something, = perilous=20 though that is. It would simply be to delay action rather than to avert = it. It=20 would encourage other tyrants and trouble-makers to believe that they = can mount=20 such attacks with impunity, in any country in the world, for if America = cannot=20 or will not hit back, then perhaps nobody can. Such attacks could well = use even=20 more fearsome means, including biological, chemical and nuclear weapons. = It=20 would be likely, indeed, that the same network of terrorists that = planned last=20 week's attacks would soon mount others, killing yet more innocent people = and=20 sowing even more fear. For one observation by the pacifists is surely = true: that=20 the terrorists do want to provoke a reaction, and will carry on their = attacks=20 until they get one.

It is almost = always=20 wrong to dismiss terrorism as “irrational”. The word may = seem appropriate when=20 the perpetrators commit suicide in order to carry out their attacks, but = it is=20 misleading: terrorism is a horribly calculated attempt to use violence = to help=20 achieve an objective. Revenge against America over perceived grievances = and acts=20 in the past may doubtless play a part. But there is likely to be more, = much=20 more, to this act than that. The aim is plainly destabilisation, both of = America=20 itself and of the broad status quo in the world. More particularly, the = aim is=20 likely to be the destabilisation of the Middle East and Central Asia, to = alter=20 or even remove the presence there of both America and Israel, and to = change or=20 destroy the regimes governing the countries of that turbulent = region.

That is = where the perils=20 will be greatest. The action that must be taken will itself risk = bringing about=20 the very destabilisation that the terrorists desire. When attempting to = defeat=20 one enemy it is all too easy to create others. Many of the regimes of = the Middle=20 East face opposition on their own streets from their own discontented = people and=20 from violent groups who will be quick to exploit it if the government is = seen to=20 back an American response that goes wrong or is considered to have been=20 misdirected. That worry applies above all to Saudi Arabia, the richest = Arab=20 nation, home to Mecca and Medina, and base for American soldiers. Osama = bin=20 Laden, if he is the string-puller behind the attacks, would dearly love = to see=20 the Saudi regime overthrown and the bases ejected.

Focus, with friends

Even a = perilous battle=20 must still be fought. But how? There is also the peril of failure, of = revealing=20 your own impotence, when trying to seek out and capture or destroy an = elusive=20 terrorist network some of which may be hiding in the caves and mountains = of=20 Afghanistan, and some of which may be lurking in the cities and suburbs = of your=20 own country. That, after all, was the result in 1998 when the bloody = bombings of=20 two American embassies in Africa gave rise simply to an American = bombardment=20 which had no discernible effect.

The first = requirement is=20 determination. Part of the terrorist's calculation is probably that the = will to=20 fight is weak in a modern democracy; that Americans' support for = military action=20 will buckle at the sight of the first body bags, and that European = allies could=20 show even less stomach for the task. Almost certainly, that is also the=20 terrorists' biggest mistake. In a war launched directly on Americans, on = American soil, the will to fight back is going to be great and = long-lasting. The=20 patriotic mood in America last week was not bellicose, as many European = leftists=20 have claimed: it was sombre, deep-seated and determined. There is = certainly a=20 risk that some European countries may not share that determination once = the=20 fighting nears; some have already begun to shrink back from it. But to = fail to=20 support, and in some cases fight alongside, America would be folly, = grand scale:=20 it would not only encourage further terror, but would also shatter = American=20 willingness to do anything to help defend Europe in the = future.

The second = requirement=20 is a sense of priorities. President Bush and others have been right to = say that=20 the enemy is not just the terrorists themselves but also those countries = that=20 harbour and foster them. But the more ambitious the effort, the less = likely it=20 is to succeed. No commander likes to fight on several fronts at once. = President=20 Bush will need to choose what his top priority should be—probably = Osama bin=20 Laden and his network (see arti= cle)—and=20 focus first on that, rather than embarking immediately upon a wider=20 war.

The third = requirement is=20 patience. This is not a task that can be completed quickly, nor is it = one in=20 which military means alone will suffice. America needs not only military = allies=20 among its usual friends in NATO, but also support = from the=20 Islamic states that surround Afghanistan and other hosts of terrorism, = and from=20 all countries through which the terrorists organise their finances and = their=20 logistics. Ideally, America would first cut off the network's = nourishment, then=20 isolate it and its leaders, and then move in to defeat it. Diplomacy, to = elicit=20 or induce co-operation from many countries, is therefore going to be = vital (= see R= 20;Fighting=20 terrorism” and R= 20;The military=20 options”).

That is most = vital of=20 all for the fourth requirement: intelligence. In this difficult, = tortuous task,=20 the word counts in both of its senses. With regional allies, it is the = second=20 sense, of espionage and information, that matters most. To reach those=20 terrorists who are hiding in Afghanistan or elsewhere, American forces = will need=20 both to learn where they are and to be able to get there quickly. They = therefore=20 need help from other countries' intelligence services, as well as = co-operation=20 to be able to base their forces near to the terrorists' hiding=20 places.

Although = military action=20 may begin with aerial bombardment of some sort, the real job is likely = to be=20 done by highly mobile special forces, mounting attacks from a number of=20 different bases. It will not be a big, set-piece battle like the Gulf = war. Nor=20 will it be a battle in which there is one clear opponent to be fought = and=20 vanquished: defeats will have to be meted out, on terrorist bands and, = quite=20 probably, on their Taliban hosts. Such victories will be necessary, both = to=20 deter enemies and to encourage supporters, but they will not add up to = an=20 ultimate victory, for terrorist networks are too fragmented and = insidious for=20 that. What the deaths of more than 5,000 people showed, on September = 11th, was=20 that we will always be vulnerable to extremists' acts, however = sophisticated our=20 technology or our society. The price of liberty, as Thomas Jefferson = pointed out=20 two centuries ago, is eternal vigilance.

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