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Subject: Economist.com
Date: Sun, 23 Sep 2001 17:36:43 +1000
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face=3D"verdana, geneva, arial, sans serif" size=3D-1><B>Fighting=20
terrorism</B></FONT> <BR><BR><FONT face=3D"verdana, geneva, arial, sans =
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size=3D+1><B>Allies in search of a strategy </B><BR></FONT><FONT =
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face=3D"verdana,geneva,arial,sans serif" size=3D-2>Sep 20th 2001 | =
LONDON AND=20
WASHINGTON, DC</FONT> <FONT color=3D#999999 =
face=3D"verdana,geneva,arial,sans serif"=20
size=3D-2><BR>From The Economist print edition</FONT> <BR><BR>
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          <TD align=3Dright vAlign=3Dtop><FONT color=3D#999999=20
            face=3D"Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif"=20
      size=3D-2>AP</FONT></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
      <P><FONT face=3D"Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif"=20
  size=3D-1><B></B></FONT></P></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><BR =
clear=3Dall><FONT=20
face=3D"verdana,geneva,arial,sans serif" size=3D-1><B>First, build the =
coalition.=20
Then, think what to do</B></FONT><BR><!--back-->
<P><FONT face=3D"verdana,geneva,arial,sans serif" size=3D-1>TWO days =
after the=20
destruction of the World Trade Centre in New York and the simultaneous =
assault=20
on America's military nerve centre, the Pentagon, President George Bush =
declared=20
the United States to be &#8220;at war&#8221; with international =
terrorism. He enjoined=20
America's soldiers, and with them the American people, to &#8220;get =
ready&#8221; for=20
military conflict and for further sacrifice. At the memorial service in=20
Washington's National Cathedral for the close to 6,000 victims of the =
bloodiest=20
terrorist assault in history, the leader of the world's most powerful =
country=20
declared that this conflict, &#8220;begun on the timing and terms of =
others...will end=20
in a way, and at an hour, of our choosing.&#8221;</FONT></P>
<P><FONT face=3D"verdana,geneva,arial,sans serif" size=3D-1>Mr Bush =
picked his words=20
to send a message of resolve not just to America but to the world. But =
what does=20
it mean to be at war with terrorism? Who are the enemy? What are the =
right=20
tools, and what is the best strategy, to fight them with? If this is =
indeed to=20
be the first war of the 21st century, is victory possible against an =
enemy that=20
demands neither territory nor any other recognisable war booty, and =
seeks only=20
the maximum possible destruction with no calculation of restraint? And =
what=20
might such a victory look like? </FONT></P>
<P><FONT face=3D"verdana,geneva,arial,sans serif" size=3D-1>Mr Bush's =
immediate=20
target is clear. This week he called on the Taliban, the rulers of =
Afghanistan,=20
to hand over Osama bin Laden, the fugitive terrorist leader they have =
long=20
sheltered&#8212;or else. He wanted Mr bin Laden, he said, &#8220;dead or =
alive&#8221;. Other=20
western intelligence agencies concur with the initial judgment of =
America's:=20
that all the evidence gathered so far points to Mr bin Laden as the =
prime=20
suspect.</FONT></P><!--Class: pullquote-->
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    <TD width=3D5><IMG height=3D1=20
      src=3D"http://www.economist.com/images/blocks/spacer.gif" =
width=3D5></TD>
    <TD align=3Dmiddle bgColor=3D#ffffff vAlign=3Dtop><IMG height=3D1=20
      src=3D"http://www.economist.com/images/blocks/gray.gif" =
width=3D165><BR><IMG=20
      height=3D5 =
src=3D"http://www.economist.com/images/blocks/spacer.gif"=20
      width=3D165><BR><FONT color=3D#000066=20
      face=3D"Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" size=3D3><B>Mr Bush =
is unlikely=20
      to wait long before striking back </B></FONT><BR><IMG height=3D5=20
      src=3D"http://www.economist.com/images/blocks/spacer.gif" =
width=3D165><BR><IMG=20
      height=3D1 src=3D"http://www.economist.com/images/blocks/gray.gif" =

    width=3D165></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
<P><FONT face=3D"verdana,geneva,arial,sans serif" size=3D-1>But even =
getting at him,=20
let alone the loosely-knit and widely-dispersed terrorist network over =
which he=20
presides, will not be easy (see <A=20
href=3D"http://www.economist.com/displaystory.cfm?story_id=3D788555">arti=
cle</A>).=20
Earlier this week, a high-level Pakistani delegation, given special =
United=20
Nations dispensation to break the international embargo and travel to=20
Afghanistan to try to talk the Taliban into handing him over, left Kabul =

empty-handed. Amid calls for Afghanistan to renew its <I>jihad</I> =
(&#8220;struggle&#8221;=20
or &#8220;holy war&#8221;) against America, the country's =
highest-ranking Islamic clerics,=20
summoned by their leader, Mullah Muhammad Omar, to respond to the =
mounting=20
pressure from the outside world, said that Mr bin Laden should leave=20
voluntarily. Mr Bush is unlikely to wait long before striking back at =
the man=20
and the organisation he suspects of causing the greatest number of =
casualties on=20
American territory in a single day since the civil war, and at the =
country that=20
harbours him. On September 20th, 100 extra American war planes were =
moved to the=20
Gulf in preparation for action.</FONT></P>
<P><FONT face=3D"verdana,geneva,arial,sans serif" size=3D-1>In that =
strict sense,=20
America is not only sounding, but acting, as if it is going to war. =
Reserves are=20
being called up. Congress has passed a resolution giving the president =
power to=20
&#8220;use all necessary and appropriate force&#8221; against any =
individual, organisation=20
or country that played any role in last week's attacks, and allowing for =

pre-emptive strikes to prevent any more. It has already appropriated $20 =
billion=20
for that purpose, on top of the $20 billion assigned for rescue and =
clean-up=20
operations at home. Public opinion is overwhelmingly in favour of =
military=20
action against terrorists, though more nervous of using force against =
states=20
that sponsor them.</FONT></P>
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          <TD align=3Dright vAlign=3Dtop><FONT color=3D#999999=20
            face=3D"Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif"=20
      size=3D-2>AP</FONT></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
      <P><FONT face=3D"Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" size=3D-1><B>It =
could be=20
      London, Paris, =
Canberra...</B></FONT></P></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
<P><FONT face=3D"verdana,geneva,arial,sans serif" =
size=3D-1>International opinion is=20
a little more varied. Even those countries that back America to the hilt =
are=20
calling for coolness and deliberation before military action is taken. =
Others,=20
such as Russia and China, want nothing to be done without the approval =
of the=20
<FONT size=3D-1>UN</FONT> Security Council.</FONT></P>
<P><FONT face=3D"verdana,geneva,arial,sans serif" size=3D-1>But <FONT =
size=3D-1>NATO=20
</FONT>responded last week by invoking, for the first time in its =
52-year=20
history, Article 5 of its founding treaty, which declares the attack on =
America=20
to be an attack on the alliance as a whole, and enables America to call =
on its=20
allies for military support. And few would argue that America does not =
have the=20
legal right, under Article 51 of the <FONT size=3D-1>UN</FONT> charter, =
to strike=20
back at its tormentors. The United States is naturally reserving the =
right to=20
take unilateral action; but talks are under way with many countries, =
from=20
America's close allies in Europe to Islamic Pakistan and some of the =
countries=20
of Central Asia and even farther-flung Australia, to gather the military =

support, access to bases and over-flight rights that America may=20
need.</FONT></P>
<P><FONT face=3D"verdana,geneva,arial,sans serif" size=3D-1>Retaliation =
may indeed=20
be justified and necessary&#8212;if only to persuade the world, and =
especially other=20
would-be terrorist groups, of the strength of America's determination to =
fight=20
back after such devastating attacks on its territory, its values and its =

institutions. But the struggle America is preparing to wage will be =
long,=20
complex and dangerous. President Bush has made it clear that this is not =
just a=20
war against the terrorists responsible for last week's atrocities, but =
against=20
terrorism itself.</FONT></P><BR clear=3Dall>
<DIV><FONT face=3D"verdana, geneva, arial, sans serif"><B><A=20
name=3Dneeded:_allies_inside_islam>Needed: allies inside=20
Islam</A></B></FONT></DIV>
<P><FONT face=3D"verdana,geneva,arial,sans serif" size=3D-1>That is why =
this will be=20
unlike any other war America has fought. Mr Bush has called it a =
&#8220;crusade&#8221;, a=20
word with just the bruising overtones that some Islamic extremists have =
used in=20
the past to justify their murderous assault on America and all it =
represents.=20
Yet the president has no intention of declaring war on the Islamic =
world. On the=20
contrary, he is now hoping for direct help from a number of its =
governments,=20
from the Middle East to Asia, in isolating and eventually eliminating =
groups,=20
such as Mr bin Laden's, that use Islam as a cover for their crimes. =
However,=20
both he and his senior officials have given warning that America will go =
after=20
not only terrorist groups but also the governments that sponsor or =
support them.=20
</FONT></P>
<P><FONT face=3D"verdana,geneva,arial,sans serif" size=3D-1>Apart from =
Afghanistan=20
itself, America's list of &#8220;the usual suspects&#8221; in the =
terrorism business has=20
long included Iran, Iraq, Libya, Syria, North Korea, Sudan and Cuba. =
Since last=20
week's attacks, the deputy secretary of defence, Paul Wolfowitz, has =
talked of=20
&#8220;ending&#8221; states which sponsor terrorism. If it refused to =
hand over Mr bin Laden=20
and his associates, Afghanistan's regime would be one obvious =
target.</FONT></P>
<P><FONT face=3D"verdana,geneva,arial,sans serif" size=3D-1>Might Iraq =
be another?=20
In the past there have been reported links between Iraq and Mr bin =
Laden. So=20
far, there is no clear evidence of Iraqi involvement in last week's =
carnage. If=20
more were to emerge, America would have little compunction about =
attacking a=20
regime that is thought to be rebuilding its illegal chemical, biological =
and=20
possibly nuclear weapons. </FONT></P><!--Class: pullquote-->
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  <TR>
    <TD width=3D5><IMG height=3D1=20
      src=3D"http://www.economist.com/images/blocks/spacer.gif" =
width=3D5></TD>
    <TD align=3Dmiddle bgColor=3D#ffffff vAlign=3Dtop><IMG height=3D1=20
      src=3D"http://www.economist.com/images/blocks/gray.gif" =
width=3D165><BR><IMG=20
      height=3D5 =
src=3D"http://www.economist.com/images/blocks/spacer.gif"=20
      width=3D165><BR><FONT color=3D#000066=20
      face=3D"Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" size=3D3><B>For the =
first time=20
      in over 20 years, worshippers in Iran failed to chant &#8220;Death =
to America!&#8221;=20
      at the start of Friday prayers</B></FONT><BR><IMG height=3D5=20
      src=3D"http://www.economist.com/images/blocks/spacer.gif" =
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      height=3D1 src=3D"http://www.economist.com/images/blocks/gray.gif" =

    width=3D165></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
<P><FONT face=3D"verdana,geneva,arial,sans serif" size=3D-1>Yet most of =
the states=20
on America's list&#8212;Iraq stands out as the exception&#8212;have =
condemned last week's=20
attacks. For the first time in more than 20 years, worshippers in Iran =
failed to=20
chant &#8220;Death to America!&#8221; at the start of their Friday =
prayers. Words of=20
condolence come naturally in the aftermath of ferocious acts of =
terrorism. Yet=20
this could be a chance for America to find common ground with old foes =
such as=20
Iran to end some of their official and unofficial support for groups =
with=20
terrorist connections&#8212;a first victory, perhaps, for America's will =
to prosecute=20
this new war. </FONT></P>
<P><FONT face=3D"verdana,geneva,arial,sans serif" size=3D-1>Will Mr =
Bush's chosen=20
tools be diplomacy or force? He will need both. Military =
pressure&#8212;and possible=20
military strikes&#8212;on Afghanistan would not just assuage Americans' =
demands for=20
retaliation, but might help to deter some governments from further aid =
to Mr bin=20
Laden's group or others bent on terrorism. Yet his senior aides admit =
that=20
military strikes&#8212;even a whole series of them&#8212;cannot win a =
war with an aim as=20
all-embracing as this one. Indeed, unless America is prepared to =
alienate wide=20
swathes of the moderate Muslim world, by launching military attacks =
against any=20
country suspected of having terrorists somewhere on its territory, the =
direct=20
military options available to America may soon come to seem rather=20
limited.</FONT></P>
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    <TD vAlign=3Dbottom><IMG alt=3DEPA border=3D0 height=3D178=20
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    <TD vAlign=3Dtop>
      <TABLE align=3Dright border=3D0 cellPadding=3D0 cellSpacing=3D2>
        <TBODY>
        <TR>
          <TD align=3Dright vAlign=3Dtop><FONT color=3D#999999=20
            face=3D"Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif"=20
      size=3D-2>EPA</FONT></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
      <P><FONT face=3D"Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" =
size=3D-1><B>Britain and Russia=20
      both failed to beat them</B></FONT></P></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
<P><FONT face=3D"verdana,geneva,arial,sans serif" size=3D-1>Pinprick =
missile attacks=20
against terrorist training camps in Afghanistan and a suspected =
chemical-weapons=20
plant in Sudan, launched by President Bill Clinton in 1998 after attacks =
on the=20
American embassies in Kenya and Tanzania, did nothing to deter Mr bin =
Laden and=20
his followers. Neither have Russia's scorched-earth tactics against =
rebels=20
(Russia calls them terrorists) in Chechnya, which have reduced that =
country to=20
rubble. And would the targets be the 1,000 or so operatives thought to =
be in Mr=20
bin Laden's al-Qaeda network worldwide, or the wider universe of terror=20
organisations, including Islamic Jihad and Hamas in Palestine? If simply =
killing=20
terrorists were enough, Israel would by now be the safest country on=20
earth.</FONT></P>
<P><FONT face=3D"verdana,geneva,arial,sans serif" size=3D-1>Amid all the =
talk of=20
war, it has been left to Colin Powell, the secretary of state, to spell =
out the=20
beginnings of a broader strategy. He has called for &#8220;a campaign =
that goes after=20
not just retaliatory satisfaction, but goes after eliminating this =
threat by=20
ripping it up, by going after its finances, by going after its =
infrastructure,=20
by making sure we're applying all the intelligence assets we can to =
finding what=20
they are up to.&#8221; And the measure of its success? &#8220;No more =
attacks like this=20
against the United States and our interests around the =
world.&#8221;</FONT></P>
<P><FONT face=3D"verdana,geneva,arial,sans serif" size=3D-1>In this =
campaign, as in=20
the narrower military one that is about to be unleashed, America will =
need=20
allies. But to qualify as a friend of America's, revulsion and words of =
moral=20
support will not be enough. Mr Powell has talked of a &#8220;new =
benchmark&#8221;: how=20
governments now respond to America's requests for help in the war =
against=20
terrorism &#8220;will be a means by which we measure our relationship =
with them in the=20
future.&#8221;</FONT></P><BR clear=3Dall>
<DIV><FONT face=3D"verdana, geneva, arial, sans serif"><B><A=20
name=3Dcold_war_parallels>Cold war parallels</A></B></FONT></DIV>
<P><FONT face=3D"verdana,geneva,arial,sans serif" size=3D-1>In many =
ways, the=20
nearest parallel to America's new thinking is the determination to =
contain=20
communism that marked the cold war. This was an equally all-embracing =
struggle=20
that had military, diplomatic, economic and ideological elements. Of =
course, the=20
cold war was also a classic military stand-off which ended when the =
Soviet block=20
finally threw off communism. Islam, by contrast, is here to stay, and =
many of=20
its adherents are as shocked as the rest of the world at the barbarity =
of the=20
crimes just committed in its name. Still, as a way of viewing the =
outside world,=20
the fight against terrorism may now come to represent for America what =
the cold=20
war did for much of the second half of the 20th century: a means of =
ordering=20
defence priorities and national budgets at home; a way of organising =
military,=20
political and diplomatic power abroad; a new focus for old institutions =
and an=20
organising concept for new ones. Above all, a way of telling friend from =

foe.</FONT></P>
<P><FONT face=3D"verdana,geneva,arial,sans serif" size=3D-1>Some have =
understood=20
this more clearly than others. America has been particularly pleased =
with the=20
support it has received from Pakistan. That country's leader, General =
Pervez=20
Musharraf, was quick to offer America assistance, both in pressing the =
Taliban=20
to give up Mr bin Laden and in offering America use of its air space and =
other=20
support. Pakistan, through its links with Afghanistan, will have a major =
role if=20
military efforts are made to dislodge the Taliban from power.</FONT></P>
<P><FONT face=3D"verdana,geneva,arial,sans serif" size=3D-1>By helping =
America,=20
Pakistan is taking a risk (see <A=20
href=3D"http://www.economist.com/displaystory.cfm?story_id=3D789298">arti=
cle</A>).=20
Its own Islamic militants have close connections to Afghanistan's =
mullahs, and=20
American military action could cause a backlash inside Pakistan. But Mr=20
Musharraf understood that this was the moment he had to choose sides, =
and has=20
made sterling efforts to induce his people to accept that.</FONT></P>
<P><FONT face=3D"verdana,geneva,arial,sans serif" size=3D-1>If Pakistan =
is ever to=20
get out from under its mountain of debt and achieve a degree of =
political=20
stability, it needs the economic support of the West. Japan has already=20
suggested it may resume some of the aid to Pakistan that was cut off =
after the=20
Indian and Pakistani nuclear tests in 1998. America may do the same. And =
at a=20
time when Pakistan's great rival, India, has been seeking a new =
connection with=20
America, Mr Musharraf has a much-needed opportunity to strengthen his =
own=20
American links. Help with the war against terrorism could earn Pakistan =
some=20
American sympathy in its argument with India over Kashmir. At the least, =

Pakistan's response to the events of the past week may have corrected =
what=20
Pakistan saw as a dangerous western tilt towards India. But Pakistan, =
like other=20
countries, can expect to come under pressure to clamp down on its own=20
extremists.</FONT></P>
<P><FONT face=3D"verdana,geneva,arial,sans serif" size=3D-1>Other =
countries will=20
face hard decisions, too. Israel and the Palestinians have been pressed =
to=20
accept a ceasefire and open talks that could dampen down their months of =

fighting; America wants nothing to get in the way of its efforts to =
rally Arab=20
support to the anti-terrorist cause. Saudi Arabia has long supported =
America's=20
presence in the Gulf, while trying to protect its own regime by =
funnelling money=20
to fundamentalist groups, including some in Pakistan. This has =
indirectly helped=20
to finance outfits like Mr bin Laden's. Pressure to end this practice =
could put=20
Saudi Arabia's stability at risk. But difficult calculations will have =
to be=20
made by many governments&#8212;including America's. </FONT></P>
<P><FONT face=3D"verdana,geneva,arial,sans serif" size=3D-1>Puzzlingly, =
for an=20
administration that came to office vowing to nurture old friendships and =

alliances, Mr Bush's team had seemed to spend its first months doing the =

opposite. Its decision to abandon the Kyoto protocol on global warming =
irritated=20
many of its friends. So did its readiness to set aside the =
Anti-Ballistic=20
Missile (<FONT size=3D-1>ABM</FONT>) treaty, and its reluctance to =
accept the=20
constraints of multilateral arms-control agreements. America, it seemed, =
was=20
prepared to operate on its own: happy if others wanted to tag along, =
unconcerned=20
if they did not. Will this now change?</FONT></P><BR clear=3Dall>
<DIV><FONT face=3D"verdana, geneva, arial, sans serif"><B><A=20
name=3Dholding_on_to_friends>Holding on to friends</A></B></FONT></DIV>
<P><FONT face=3D"verdana,geneva,arial,sans serif" size=3D-1>The Bush =
administration=20
is already making better use of the international tools that are =
available.=20
Although America will not submit its military plans to the <FONT=20
size=3D-1>UN</FONT> Security Council for approval, it has moved quickly =
to speed=20
payment of its long-standing financial arrears to the organisation, =
giving its=20
new ambassador, John Negroponte, a cleaner diplomatic slate for =
gathering=20
support in the fight against terrorism. The strong condemnation of the =
terrorist=20
attacks by both the Security Council and the General Assembly has been=20
appreciated. Among the <FONT size=3D-1>UN </FONT>conventions already on =
the books=20
or under debate are a number designed specifically to combat terrorism. =
These=20
include one, adopted in 1999, to help end the financing of terrorist=20
organisations. America is likely to press more countries to put their =
names to=20
this.</FONT></P>
<P><FONT face=3D"verdana,geneva,arial,sans serif" size=3D-1>If nothing =
else, the=20
assaults on the World Trade Centre and the Pentagon have demonstrated to =

Americans that they cannot simply look to their own defences and forget =
the=20
world outside. An international terrorist onslaught needs an =
international=20
response. Can America pull together such a coalition, and sustain it? =
Over the=20
next few weeks there will be more at stake than Afghanistan and Mr bin=20
Laden.</FONT></P>
<P><FONT face=3D"verdana,geneva,arial,sans serif" size=3D-1>Right now, =
America seems=20
to have more staunch friends and sympathisers than Mr Bush knows what to =
do=20
with. France's president, Jacques Chirac, and Britain's prime minister, =
Tony=20
Blair, were both in Washington to confer with Mr Bush this week. These =
are=20
allies who not only posess the most deployable military forces in =
Europe, should=20
America need them, but also have influence in parts of the world, from =
Europe to=20
the Middle East and Asia, that will be equally useful if America's =
diplomats are=20
to turn the coalition of sympathisers into something more useful and=20
enduring.</FONT></P>
<P><FONT face=3D"verdana,geneva,arial,sans serif" size=3D-1>Yet there is =
still worry=20
about the possibility of America going it alone. Despite the strong =
political=20
and emotional support provided by the allies over the past week, a =
number of=20
European politicians have said that this does not amount to a =
&#8220;blank cheque&#8221; for=20
anything America may now wish to do. Both Mr Chirac and Mr Blair will =
have=20
wanted to impress on Mr Bush this week the need for a measured and =
proportionate=20
response, and for a readiness to listen to the concerns of allies. The =
wider and=20
less discriminating America's military attacks are, should they come, =
the harder=20
it will be to keep some of America's European allies on board. Yet, if =
cracks=20
were to appear in the support for America from its <FONT =
size=3D-1>NATO</FONT>=20
allies, the effects could be disastrous&#8212;for both. The worry in =
Europe is that=20
this danger may be less obvious to the administration in Washington than =
it is=20
to onlookers in London, Paris or Berlin.</FONT></P>
<P><FONT face=3D"verdana,geneva,arial,sans serif" size=3D-1>Assuming =
that these=20
dangers can be avoided, how might the change in America's thinking =
affect the=20
balance of its relations with the other two big powers, Russia and =
China? Both=20
have long shared America's concern with the fundamentalist threat =
emanating from=20
Afghanistan, and have condemned last week's attacks. Yet both have their =

differences with America. Will this be taken as a time to narrow these, =
or=20
exploit them?</FONT></P>
<P><FONT face=3D"verdana,geneva,arial,sans serif" size=3D-1>Russia's =
reaction has=20
been ambivalent. Its defence minister, Sergei Ivanov, was quick to =
refuse=20
America access to military bases in Central Asia on the borders with=20
Afghanistan&#8212;too quick, given that these bases are in supposedly =
sovereign=20
countries. Uzbekistan has since sounded more ready to accommodate any =
American=20
requests for help; Tajikistan, more closely under Russia's thumb, has =
said=20
little. </FONT></P>
<P><FONT face=3D"verdana,geneva,arial,sans serif" size=3D-1>Yet Russia's =
diplomats=20
can also see some opportunities for their country in co-operating with =
America.=20
Russia has long bristled at western criticism of its brutal war in =
Chechnya, and=20
is clearly hoping that this will now subside if it makes common =
diplomatic cause=20
with America against Islamic terrorism. It remains to be seen whether =
Russia=20
will also now temper its support in the Security Council for lifting =
sanctions=20
on Iraq.</FONT></P>
<P><FONT face=3D"verdana,geneva,arial,sans serif" size=3D-1>Vladimir =
Putin, Russia's=20
president, had already agreed to talk to America about new =
understandings that=20
might amend the <FONT size=3D-1>ABM</FONT> treaty and allow America room =
to=20
explore anti-missile defences. Although such defences could not have =
stopped the=20
recent terrorist attacks, America is unlikely to abandon its quest for =
them.=20
Indeed, its concern about future threats from unpredictably violent =
countries=20
and people who are attempting to acquire long-range missiles is =
naturally going=20
to intensify. So too will pressure on Russia to tighten the loopholes in =
its=20
export controls that have repeatedly allowed missile and related =
technologies to=20
slip through the net.</FONT></P>
<P><FONT face=3D"verdana,geneva,arial,sans serif" size=3D-1>So far, =
Russia has been=20
part of the problem. Can it now become part of the solution? Mr Putin =
may yet be=20
hoping that, in return for Russia's co-operation in the war against =
terrorism=20
and a readiness to strike a new strategic bargain over nuclear weapons =
and=20
missile defences, America will heed Russian concerns by delaying or =
abandoning=20
any plans to bring the Baltic states into an enlarged <FONT =
size=3D-1>NATO</FONT>.=20
</FONT></P>
<P><FONT face=3D"verdana,geneva,arial,sans serif" size=3D-1>The Chinese =
reaction has=20
been even more ambivalent. As expected, China has called formally for =
America to=20
act only with the approval of the <FONT size=3D-1>UN</FONT> Security =
Council=20
(where China, like Russia, has a veto). Yet it is unlikely to press the =
matter.=20
It has a keen interest in ending Afghanistan's role as a haven for =
Islamic=20
terrorists, not least because it sees that as the source of much =
instability=20
around the region, including in its own Xinjiang province. And it has an =

interest in improving ties with America after the collision in April =
between a=20
Chinese fighter and an American surveillance plane off the Chinese =
coast.=20
</FONT></P>
<P><FONT face=3D"verdana,geneva,arial,sans serif" size=3D-1>China, too, =
has its own=20
agenda. This week it pointedly called for America to help in its fight =
against=20
&#8220;separatism&#8221;&#8212;a dig at continued American support for =
Taiwan. Despite official=20
promises to the contrary, Chinese firms are as active as ever in =
supplying=20
illicit technology to dodgy customers who may one day add to the threat =
the=20
world now faces. America would like more co-operation from China in the =
fight=20
against terrorism. But few people doubt that, in the longer run, America =
and=20
China will remain rivals in Asia. </FONT></P><BR clear=3Dall>
<DIV><FONT face=3D"verdana, geneva, arial, sans serif"><B><A=20
name=3Doutward,_look>Outward, look</A></B></FONT></DIV>
<P><FONT face=3D"verdana,geneva,arial,sans serif" size=3D-1>America has =
been=20
redefined by disaster three times in the past 75 years. The first was in =
1929,=20
when the Wall Street crash began a decade of depression at home and =
isolationism=20
abroad. That was halted by the second disaster: the Japanese attack on =
Pearl=20
Harbour. Eventually, once war ended, the country saw 50 years of =
unparalleled=20
domestic wealth and international engagement. This could be the third =
shock.=20
There is clearly a risk that America could turn inward, driven by =
emotional=20
horror at the evil the outside world can do. Yet, to judge by the first =
rallying=20
of both government and people, almost the reverse is happening. America =
is=20
seeing this tragedy as a reason to provide renewed leadership, to become =
engaged=20
abroad, and to look resolutely outward for friends. </FONT></P><BR =
clear=3Dall><BR=20
clear=3Dall>
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