From: <Saved by Microsoft Internet Explorer 5>
Subject: Financial Review - The clash of civilisations?
Date: Sat, 15 Sep 2001 13:53:25 +1000
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    <TD height=3D20 noWrap width=3D125><SPAN class=3Dsmall><FONT=20
      color=3D#ffffff>&nbsp;September 15 2001</FONT></SPAN><BR><IMG =
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nbsp;C&nbsp;T&nbsp;I&nbsp;V&nbsp;E&nbsp;</A>=20

            <HR>
            <SPAN class=3Dheading>The clash of =
civilisations?</SPAN><BR><A=20
            class=3Ddate href=3D"http://afr.com/wtc/afrwtc.html">Sep =
15</A><BR><A=20
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            <P>
            <P>In mid-1998, the terrorist Osama bin Laden made open =
threats=20
            against the US and called for the killing of all Americans=20
            worldwide. Within months, two US embassies were bombed in =
Africa,=20
            killing 301 and injuring some 5,000. In July this year, Osma =
bin=20
            Laden's teacher and adviser Khalid Kwaja told US TV network =
CBS that=20
            the White House was "very vulnerable" and could be destroyed =
at the=20
            cost of the lives of "just one or two" attackers. On Tuesday =
a=20
            hijacked airliner flew directly at the White House before =
making a=20
            last-minute turn and crashing with devastating force into =
the=20
            Pentagon, smashing through three of five concentric rings of =

            reinforced concrete offices.
            <P>The President's spokesman, Ari Fleischer, said there was =
credible=20
            evidence that the White House had been targeted, although he =

            declined to say just how.
            <P>Now that the US Secretary of State, Colin Powell, has =
said that=20
            Osama bin Laden is indeed the prime suspect for the attacks =
and he=20
            has established a pattern of bragging in advance of what =
appear to=20
            be his attacks we might consider another recent threat from =
his=20
            group, Al-Qaida (Arabic for military base).
            <P>Kwaja also told CBS that the weakness of the US was that =
its=20
            people were brought up to avoid death: "What would happen if =
100,000=20
            people were killed? What would you do? One-hundred-thousand =
people=20
            dead one day and 200,000 injured?"
            <P>It is clear that bin Laden believes he will weaken the US =
resolve=20
            to fight by inflicting massive casualties. And those numbers =
imply=20
            something far more lethal than the attacks during the week =
they=20
            suggest a chemical, biological or nuclear weapons attack on =
the US.=20
            Is this plausible? Al-Qaida has had chemical weapons =
capability for=20
            several years, according to US intelligence, and has been =
seeking to=20
            buy nuclear materials.
            <P>The devastation was crafted for maximum spectacle and =
symbolic=20
            impact. It was aimed at the political and commercial =
capitals,=20
            struck at national landmarks, hit buildings embodying =
financial=20
            power and military might, in broad daylight, with explosions =
and=20
            fire and using planes branded United and American.
            <P>Is Kwaja foreshadowing that there will be another attack, =
aimed=20
            not to maximise the theatrical effect but the death toll?
            <P>The same experts who have forlornly but accurately been =
warning=20
            for years of attacks like the one on September 11 think more =
and=20
            bigger terrorist atrocities on US soil are likely.
            <P>The US public is frightened; more than half expect =
further=20
            attacks in coming weeks, according to two polls taken during =
the=20
            week.
            <P>The US Government cannot prove that bin Laden launched =
the=20
            attacks, and even if it does, it may not be able to strike =
back at=20
            him. The last time it tried, in 1998, it launched massive =
and hasty=20
            missile strikes, and "all we managed to do was bounce some =
rubble=20
            around in Afghanistan and raise the level of =
anti-Americanism", says=20
            a former CIA agent who worked in Afghanistan, Milt Bearden.
            <P>But the public knows who it thinks the enemy is anyone =
who looks=20
            or seems Arabic. US news services have reported scores of =
hostile=20
            acts against Arab-Americans, including shootings, beatings, =
mob=20
            attacks on homes, and defacing of mosques. The proprietor of =
one=20
            Middle Eastern restaurant received a bag of pig's blood.
            <P>Anyone with Levantine looks is suspect, and police are =
stopping=20
            and searching them. You don't even need to be an Arab or a =
Muslim a=20
            Sikh was arrested for carrying a weapon. In a country where =
you can=20
            walk into Kmart and buy a handgun for $50, his true crime =
seems to=20
            have been wearing a turban.
            <P>"My husband and I stayed up all night guarding the =
windows," said=20
            a Chicago woman, according to Reuters. "My husband is of =
Arab=20
            descent. He gave four years of his life in the US Navy ... =
to have=20
            some skinhead with an American flag screaming at your =
house."
            <P>It became so virulent that the President, George W. Bush, =

            appealed for sanity on Thursday. So did his father, the =
former=20
            president: "We should be mindful that these were not the =
acts of all=20
            Muslims who, like Christians and Jews, believe in a God of =
love and=20
            mercy. Rather, these were senseless murders, committed by =
religious=20
            extremists who kill out of hate."
            <P>Likewise, there is a stark distinction between Islamic =
countries.=20
            Five sponsor or deploy terrorism as a tool of diplomacy. =
These are=20
            Iran, Iraq, Syria, Libya and Sudan. A sixth, Afghanistan, =
harbours=20
            and protects Osama bin Laden.
            <P>But most Islamic countries are secular and moderate, =
some, like=20
            Indonesia, are also democratic. And several, like Saudi =
Arabia and=20
            Egypt, are closely aligned with the US.
            <P>"A number of key Arab States have as much to worry about =
from=20
            Islamic extremists as we do," says a former deputy US =
national=20
            security adviser and the head of foreign policy studies at =
Brookings=20
            Institution, Jim Steinberg. "The terror groups that did this =
have=20
            also targeted Egypt, and they are deeply anti-Saudi. =
Indonesia is=20
            desperately worried about Islamic fundamentalism."
            <P>These distinctions are badly blurred in the mind of the =
US=20
            public. They may become more blurred as the US rains =
destruction on=20
            those it deems responsible for the attacks. If the US does =
prove bin=20
            Laden's culpability, it will pursue him and the country that =

            sheltered him, Afghanistan. Awful scenes of suffering will =
likely=20
            fill TV screens around the world. Innocent civilians will =
die=20
            dreadful deaths.
            <P>The sympathies of people everywhere should be engaged by =
such=20
            scenes, but Islamic peoples would be more strongly affected. =
Public=20
            opinion around the world is now relatively united in =
sympathy for=20
            the Americans. But it could easily split into opposing blocs =
when=20
            the battle is joined.
            <P>And other Islamic countries could be implicated. Bin =
Laden's=20
            group has some 3,000 members in a network of cells spanning =
34=20
            countries, according to the Congressional Research Service. =
If any=20
            terror-sponsoring State is found to have aided the attacks =
on the=20
            US, it faces retaliation too.
            <P>Two-thirds of Americans say they support punitive war =
even if it=20
            leads to the killing of innocent civilians, according to a =
Gallup=20
            poll. It is hard to imagine Muslims being indifferent to the =
violent=20
            deaths of innocent brother Muslims at the hands of a =
vengeful US.
            <P>The Taliban regime is counting on US retaliation to stir=20
            pan-Islamic outrage and counter-retaliation: "If innocent =
and=20
            sinless people suffer, then it is certain that on the level =
of the=20
            region, hatred will further increase, the result of which =
will be=20
            similar to the suicide incidents," says the Taliban =
spokesman Abdul=20
            Hai Mutmaen.
            <P>The US's challenge, says Jim Steinberg, is "to pursue a =
policy=20
            that doesn't lead to a split into a Western bloc of =
countries and an=20
            Islamic bloc".
            <P>This is perhaps the greatest danger of the war that the =
world has=20
            embarked upon: that intense emotions will trigger a =
neo-Crusade,=20
            pitting the West against the Islamic world.
            <P>In a famous 1993 essay, the US scholar Samuel Huntington =
wrote:=20
            "Nation states will remain the most powerful actors in world =

            affairs, but the principal conflicts of global politics will =
occur=20
            between nations and groups of different civilisations. The =
fault=20
            lines between civilisations are replacing the political and=20
            ideological boundaries of the Cold War as the flashpoints =
for crisis=20
            and bloodshed."
            <P>He nominates the 1,300-year-old divide between =
Christianity and=20
            Islam as one of the most important and dangerous of these =
fault=20
            lines. This thesis, titled The Clash of Civilisations, was =
intensely=20
            controversial when it was first published. It has been =
growing less=20
            so.
            <P>The influential conservative US commentator Charles =
Krauthammer=20
            wrote in The Washington Post during the week: "The enemy has =

            identified itself in public and openly. Our delicate =
sensibilities=20
            have prevented us from pronouncing its name. Its name is =
radical=20
            Islam."
            <P>This blurring of terrorism with civilisation and =
religion, just=20
            as Huntington predicted, is on the rise. And its mishandling =
is the=20
            greatest danger in what George Bush has called "the first =
war of the=20
            21st century".
            <P>US Defence Secretary Donald Rumsfeld, says the attacks on =
the=20
            World Trade Center and the Pentagon are "the definition of a =
new=20
            battlefield". The US, its allies, and people everywhere need =
to keep=20
            firmly in mind that this new battlefield should be where =
terrorism=20
            is fought. The great danger is that it will become a place =
where=20
            cultural bigotry is asserted.</P>
            <P></P>
            <HR>
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