From: Subject: RBA: Speech-Asia's Role in Australia's Economic Future Date: Sun, 19 Oct 2003 11:13:38 +1000 MIME-Version: 1.0 Content-Type: multipart/related; boundary="----=_NextPart_000_0072_01C39632.0BF78D50"; type="text/html" X-MimeOLE: Produced By Microsoft MimeOLE V6.00.2800.1165 This is a multi-part message in MIME format. ------=_NextPart_000_0072_01C39632.0BF78D50 Content-Type: text/html; charset="Windows-1252" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable Content-Location: http://www.rba.gov.au/Speeches/sp_gov_161003.html RBA: Speech-Asia's Role in Australia's Economic = Future

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	Search =95 Site Map = =95 Glossary&nbs= p;=95 Links =95 <= A=20 title=3DFAQ accessKey=3D5=20 = href=3D"http://www.rba.gov.au/FAQ/index.html">FAQ =95 Contact=20 Us

Asia's Role in Australia's Economic Future

I.J. Macfarlane
Governor

Tenth Annual Sir Edward "Weary" Dunlop Asialink=20 Lecture
Sydney - 16 October 2003

I would like to start by thanking the University of = Melbourne=92s=20 Asialink Centre for inviting me to deliver this lecture = commemorating such=20 a distinguished Australian as Sir Edward =93Weary=94 Dunlop. It is = a great=20 honour, and I will devote the major part of my lecture tonight to=20 Australia=92s economic relations with Asia =96 a theme of which I = am sure he=20 would have approved. But before moving on to the main topic, I = would like=20 to follow normal practice by saying a few words about the person = whose=20 memory we are honouring. In doing so, however, I intend to follow = up on a=20 couple of unusual connections that occurred to me as I was = preparing the=20 lecture. I do not intend to dwell on Weary Dunlop=92s achievements = or his=20 place in Australia=92s history or folklore. I assume that everyone = here=20 tonight is familiar with these.1

Instead, I ask your indulgence to start by drawing what you may = find is=20 a tenuous connection between Weary Dunlop and two important = economists,=20 one he may or may not have met, the other he certainly did = meet.

The first economist was Professor L.F. Giblin, who was = Australia=92s=20 foremost economist in the inter-war period. Since he held a chair = in=20 economics at Melbourne University in the 1930s, the two men may = have met,=20 but there is no record of them having done so. But if they had, it = would=20 have been an interesting meeting because from what we know from = their=20 biographies, they had some remarkable similarities. Both were big = strong=20 men and natural leaders. Both had excellent minds and rose to the = top of=20 their professions. Both were decorated for their courage in war = =96 Giblin=20 in the first world war, Dunlop in the second. Both were = outstanding=20 sportsmen in the same sport =96 rugby. If Dunlop, the Victorian, = playing=20 rugby for Australia is a sporting oddity, what of Giblin, the = Tasmanian,=20 playing rugby for England during his Cambridge days?

The connection with the other economist of note was only = recently=20 revealed, and I am indebted to Professor Leeson of Murdoch = University for=20 his excellent detective work. When Weary Dunlop and Sir Laurens = van der=20 Post, amongst others, were in the Japanese prisoner-of-war camps = in=20 Indonesia and Thailand, they tell of the miniaturised home-made = wireless=20 that they used clandestinely to keep up with the course of the = war. This=20 device had been cobbled together by a fellow prisoner of war =96 a = New=20 Zealand officer in the RAF. That officer we now know was Flight = Lieutenant=20 A.W.H. (Bill) Phillips,2 known to economists the world over as the inventor = of the=20 =93Phillips Curve=94. Phillips had been trained in New Zealand and = Australia=20 as an electrical engineer, had spent time in Asia before the war, = spoke=20 fluent Cantonese, and only embarked on a career in economics after = his=20 discharge from the RAF when the war ended.

Output Growth

Enough of these biographical curiosities. I will now turn to = the main=20 subject of my lecture tonight which is the role of Asia in = Australia=92s=20 economic future. I think for most of the past two decades, there = was=20 general agreement on the importance =96 if not the primacy =96 of = Asia in=20 Australia=92s economic future. But this agreement suffered a = couple of=20 setbacks in the 1990s. First, Japan, the biggest Asian economy and = the one=20 which had been the main driving force, fell back into a period of = very=20 slow growth at the beginning of the 1990s. Second, the Asian = crisis which=20 started in mid-1997 and lasted for about 18 months, severely = dented many=20 people=92s confidence in Asia=92s future.

This event =96 the Asian crisis =96 had a profound influence on = opinion for=20 three or four years. Many people saw it as evidence that the = =93Asian=20 miracle=94 had feet of clay after all. There was a widespread view = among=20 western observers that the crisis was the inevitable result of = severe=20 governance deficiencies in Asian countries, and that these = deficiencies=20 would hold back further economic development. During the =93tech = boom=94 and=20 the period of infatuation with the =93new economy=94 in the late = 1990s,=20 perceptions of Asia suffered again as its economy was compared=20 unfavourably with more technologically advanced western economies, = especially the United States.=20

We now know that governance deficiencies were not confined to = Asia, and=20 that some countries that were pointing the finger had governance=20 deficiencies closer to home to worry about. The infatuation with = the =93new=20 economy=94 also resulted in a bubble, the bursting of which has = been=20 exerting a dampening influence on world economic growth for the = past three=20 years. We also know that during the period when many Asian = countries were=20 suffering from the crisis, one important Asian country =96 China = =96 was=20 powering ahead. Now the dust of the Asian crisis has largely = settled, it=20 is worth sitting back and taking a fresh look at Asia=92s place in = the world=20 economy, and particularly its place in Australia=92s economic = future.

I propose to start this task by looking at the world economy = and asking=20 the question =96 which regions are increasing their share of = output, and=20 which regions are finding that their share is falling? I will use = a=20 long-running International Monetary Fund (IMF) data base for the=20 comparisons, the results of which are shown in Tables 1 and = 2.

Table 1: Asian Output (excluding Japan)
Per cent
	Share of World Output *	Change in share

	1982	1997	2002	1982=962002	1997=962002
China	3.76	10.27	12.67	237	23
India	3.00	4.28	4.77	59	11
Korea	0.81	1.67	1.77	119	6
Indonesia	1.17	1.87	1.58	35	-16
Taiwan	0.53	0.99	1.01	89	1
Thailand	0.58	1.08	0.95	64	-12
Philippines	0.82	0.69	0.68	-17	-1
Malaysia	0.26	0.47	0.45	72	-5
Hong Kong	0.29	0.42	0.40	39	-5
Vietnam	0.20	0.34	0.37	80	8
Singapore	0.13	0.24	0.24	92	2

Total	11.56	22.32	24.88	115.3	11.5
Total (ex. China)	7.79	12.05	12.22	56.7	1.4
* PPP basis Source: IMF World = Economic=20 Outlook Database

No-one should be surprised to find that over the past 20 years = Asia=92s=20 share of world output has risen noticeably, or that the share of = the=20 developed OECD countries has fallen. Note that I include Japan in = the=20 latter group because it is a developed high-income country and as = such has=20 been a member of the OECD since the 1960s. While much of the rise = in the=20 share of Asia is due to China, even when it is excluded, the rest = of=20 Asia=92s share still rises from 7.8 per cent to 12.2 per cent over = the two=20 decades.

In the above comparison, I chose a 20-year period because it = gives a=20 good idea of how longer-term trends have developed. If we instead = chose=20 the past five years for the comparison, we would be choosing = Asia=92s worst=20 period, that is the one that contains the Asian crisis. As a = result, we=20 might expect to find a different conclusion. But even here, the = same=20 picture emerges =96 Asia=92s share of world output has risen from = 22.3 per=20 cent to 24.9 per cent. It is true that most of this growth is due = to=20 China, but even without China, Asia=92s share rises slightly. = Thus, the=20 conclusion is that, whatever time period we choose, Asia=92s share = of world=20 output is rising.3 =20

Table 2: OECD Output
Per=20 cent
	Share of World Output *	Change in share

	1982	1997	2002	1982=962002	1997=962002
United States	20.78	21.32	21.10	1.6	-1.0
Japan	8.32	8.20	7.11	-14.5	-13.3
Germany	5.45	4.78	4.43	-18.7	-7.3
France	3.95	3.25	3.20	-19.1	-1.7
United Kingdom	3.52	3.23	3.12	-11.3	-3.5
Italy	3.92	3.26	3.04	-22.4	-6.6
Canada	2.08	1.95	2.02	-3.1	3.2
Spain	1.86	1.73	1.76	-5.3	1.7
Australia	1.08	1.11	1.15	7.3	4.0
Netherlands	0.98	0.91	0.89	-9.8	-2.3
Belgium	0.75	0.62	0.59	-20.9	-4.5
Sweden	0.62	0.49	0.49	-21.8	-1.1
Austria	0.56	0.48	0.46	-17.5	-4.2
Switzerland	0.63	0.48	0.45	-28.7	-7.4
Greece	0.47	0.38	0.40	-15.2	3.1
Portugal	0.41	0.38	0.37	-10.2	-2.2
Denmark	0.40	0.35	0.33	-16.4	-5.1
Norway	0.31	0.31	0.30	-3.1	-5.1
Finland	0.33	0.28	0.29	-13.1	1.1
New Zealand	0.21	0.17	0.17	-19.2	-2.5

Total	56.6	53.7	51.7	-8.7	-3.8
* PPP basis Source: IMF World = Economic=20 Outlook Database

Before we leave the tables, it is worth having a look at the=20 performance of OECD countries in more detail. Over the 20-year = period from=20 1982 to 2002, there are only two significant OECD countries that = have=20 increased their share of world output =96 Australia and the United = States.4 I have used this fact before to try and cheer up my = fellow=20 citizens who for a long time were inclined to assume that we were = slipping=20 behind. When we shift the comparison to the past five years, = Australia=20 still comes out looking good. We have increased our position more = than any=20 other significant OECD country, and the only other ones to show an = increase over this shorter period were Canada, Greece, Finland and = Spain.

The general conclusion from these comparisons is that Asia has = been,=20 and still remains, the world=92s fastest growing region and that = Australia=20 has done well compared to other high-income developed OECD = countries. The=20 two facts are, of course, not independent.

Trade and Investment

But that still leaves open a number of questions. Have our = exports=20 become over-reliant on Asia? Alternatively, have we kept up our = share of=20 Asian imports? Has the closeness of our trade linkage been = mirrored in the=20 capital markets? And are we well placed to adapt to future changes = in=20 patterns of growth, as we appear to have done in the past two = decades?=20 These are the questions I will address in the remainder of my talk = tonight.=20

Table 3: Australia=92s Merchandise Exports by = Region
Share of total
	1981/82	1991/92	1996/97	2001/02

Asia	48.8	58.0	58.9	54.9
Japan	27.8	26.5	19.5	18.8
NJA	21.0	31.5	39.4	36.1
NJA ex = China	18.2	28.8	34.9	29.7
China	2.9	2.6	4.5	6.4
EU	12.7	13.0	10.3	11.9
US	11.0	9.5	7.0	9.9
Other	27.5	19.6	23.8	23.2

Total	100.0	100.0	100.0	100.0
Source: = ABS

More than half of Australia=92s exports go to Asia, and the = proportion=20 has not greatly altered over the past two decades (Table 3). It = rose in=20 the 1980s to peak at 59 per cent in 1996/97, then fell back = slightly as=20 the Asian crisis had its effects to a figure of 55 per cent in = 2001/02.=20 Within this relatively stable total, there has been a clear fall = in the=20 share going to Japan, and a commensurate rise in the share going = to=20 non-Japan Asia (NJA). The other thing that stands out is that the = share=20 going to China, while clearly increasing, is still quite low. = Moreover,=20 when we look at these exports to Asia and compare them to the = total=20 imports that these economies are taking in, we see that = Australia=92s share=20 is quite small =96 less than 5 per cent in most cases, and only 2 = per cent=20 for China (Table 4). Clearly, there is a huge amount of room for = expansion=20 here.

Table 4: Australia=92s Share of Merchandise = Imports
Per cent of total; year to May 2003 =

China	1.9
Hong Kong	0.9
India	2.2
Indonesia	5.2
Korea	3.7
Malaysia	1.6
Philippines	1.5
Singapore	2.0
Thailand	2.3
Source: IMF Direction of Trade=20 Statistics

One of the major characteristics of the development of Asia = over the=20 past decade has been the increase in cross-border interdependence = of=20 production, as China became the centre for labour-intensive phases = of=20 manufacturing using intermediate inputs manufactured elsewhere, = which were=20 then re-exported as finished manufactures. As a result, there has = been a=20 large increase in intra-Asian trade, particularly between China = and its=20 neighbours. This intra-Asian trade, which is predominantly in=20 manufactures, has grown more quickly than trade between Asia and = the rest=20 of the world. It mirrors a general shift in the trade patterns of=20 developing economies which are now predominantly exporters of = manufactured=20 goods. As recently as 1980, only 25 per cent of the exports of = developing=20 countries were manufactures; now the figure is well over 80 per = cent =96 for=20 Asian countries, the figure is likely to be over 90 per cent.

The question for Australia then is whether our exports to Asia = are=20 growing as fast as those of other countries into Asia. It is = difficult to=20 answer this with precision, in large part because of gaps and=20 inconsistencies in data, but the approximate calculations we have = made=20 suggest that our exports are keeping up (Graphs 1, 2 and 3). These = graphs=20 look at imports into non-Japan Asia and its two biggest economies = =96 China=20 and Korea. As already established, the relevant question for us is = whether=20 imports from Australia are growing as fast as imports from other = countries=20 outside the region. The data we have suggest that this is the = case;=20 imports from Australia have grown faster than imports from the G10 = countries. This is less true for China, where our performance is = more or=20 less in line with the G10 countries, but for Korea, imports from = Australia=20 have grown a lot faster than their imports from G10 countries.

Graph 1

Click to view = larger

Graph 2

Click to view = larger

Graph 3

Click to view = larger

As we would probably expect, when we look at the breakdown of = Asian=20 imports by category, it is in categories such as food, fuels and = crude=20 materials that Australia=92s performance has been particularly = strong.=20 Imports of these goods to China and Korea from Australia have = grown much=20 more quickly than their total imports. Australia has been = increasing its=20 exports of manufactures into Asia as well, particularly to China, = but this=20 is from a very small base. Exports of manufactures to China grew = at an=20 annual rate of 22 per cent over the past five years, but even then = they=20 represent only 4 per cent of our total manufactured exports.

In summary, I think these comparisons show that we have been = doing=20 reasonably well. Our pattern of international trade is strongly = integrated=20 into Asia, and apart from a small downward adjustment due to the = probably=20 temporary effects of the Asian crisis, the trend is stable. There = appears=20 to be a lot of upside potential in the trading relationship with = China,=20 given our low market share in that country.

When we come to financial integration, however, the story is = very=20 different because we do not have a high propensity to buy Asian = financial=20 assets (Table 5). I have always been struck by the contrast = between the=20 closeness of our trading relationship with Asia and the lack of = closeness=20 in our financial integration into Asia. Australian direct = investment in=20 Asia, that is owning or having a controlling share in Asian = companies, has=20 always been relatively small. We have always been more comfortable = running=20 businesses in the United States, Europe (especially the United = Kingdom)=20 and New Zealand. What is perhaps more surprising is that the share = of=20 direct investment going to Asia has fallen over the past decade,=20 particularly over the most recent five years. During this most = recent=20 period, the share of our direct investment going to the United = States has=20 risen sharply, which is not unique to Australia =96 the strong = performance=20 of the US economy during the stock market boom years around the = turn of=20 the century attracted significant direct investment from all = developed=20 economies, and portfolio investment from everyone.=20

Table 5: Destination of Australia=92s Foreign Direct=20 Investment
Per cent of total stock = as at 30=20 June
	1982	1992	1997	2002

United States	13.1	26.3	28.0	47.8
European Union	17.2	34.9	37.4	22.2
Japan	na	0.5	0.3	0.2
Non-Japan Asia	34.6	16.4	12.6	7.4
Other	35.1	21.8	21.7	22.4

Total	100.0	100.0	100.0	100.0

Memo: Total Australian FDI
$b	5.8	44.8	89.0	156.3
Per cent of GDP	3.5	11.0	16.8	22.0
Source: = ABS

While Asia is a very big player in the world of international = trade and=20 is also a major recipient of direct foreign investment, it = receives very=20 little portfolio investment. Financial markets generally in the = region are=20 not well developed, and portfolio investment is costly and = involves=20 investors taking risks that are hard to evaluate. The lack of = development=20 is reflected in the low weights for the region in the global = market=20 indexes which drive so much of the allocation of portfolio = investment in=20 the present world: Asia accounts for less than 4 per cent of the = Morgan=20 Stanley MSCI global equity index =96 the most widely used =96 and = an even=20 smaller share of global bond market indexes. In both cases, the = shares are=20 very much lower than the region=92s 25 per cent share in world = GDP. Needless=20 to say, the share of Australia=92s outward portfolio investment = going to=20 Asia is also quite small, accounting for only 10.9 per cent of our = portfolio investment in 2002.

In its foreign economic relations, Australia has given a very = prominent=20 place to Asia over recent decades. As a result, Australia is a = member of a=20 range of Asian regional institutions aimed at encouraging growth = and=20 trade. We at the Reserve Bank are also involved closely in a = number of=20 similar groups that bring the central banks of the region = together. The=20 main aim of these meetings is to find ways of encouraging the = growth of=20 Asian financial markets in order to emulate the success of Asia in = the=20 international goods markets.

One concrete outcome of such co-operation has been the = establishment of=20 the Asian Bond Fund, through which central banks in the region = (including=20 the RBA) have invested some of our foreign reserves in bonds = issued by=20 Asian governments. So far, the only bonds included have been those = denominated in US dollars. In time, however, the central banks of = the=20 region hope to add bonds issued in local currency into the Asian = Bond=20 Fund. We believe that this will help regional bond markets develop = greater=20 liquidity and become attractive to a broader range of investors. = In time,=20 there should be an increase in investment flows both within Asia = and=20 between Asia and other economies. This is likely to see an = increase in=20 financial integration, but the process will be a slow one.

The Future

Of course, the global economy does not stand still and we do = not know=20 how the recent trends within Asia will develop. The story of the = rise of=20 China seems likely to have some way yet to run. But I doubt that = the rise=20 in importance of China, and its impact on Australia, will turn out = to be=20 the end of the story for Asia because the next chapter will = probably=20 contain a greater role for India. In terms of population, India is = growing=20 at twice the rate of China and fast approaching it in size. It is=20 noteworthy too that India is now looking to the Asian region in = its trade=20 policy, recently concluding an agreement with Association of South = Eastern=20 Nations (ASEAN) to eliminate most tariffs within eight years, at = the same=20 time as ASEAN is eliminating internal tariff barriers and = concluding free=20 trade agreements with China and Japan.

If India emerges as a second Asian engine of growth, Australia = will=20 face new opportunities and challenges. But we are well placed to = respond=20 to its increasing demands for imports of food, materials and = intermediate=20 goods. As with Korea, Australia has had a rising share over the = past five=20 years of India=92s imports of materials.

We must make sure that we have the flexibility to respond to = this=20 additional source of growth if it happens, just as we have = responded to=20 the shift from Japan to the rest of east Asia and then to China = over the=20 past two decades.

Concluding Comments

My main message =96 the importance of Asia to Australia=92s = economic future=20 =96 is not a new one, but it is one that people lost sight of for = a while.=20 But it will be different in the future in that China will assume = an=20 increasingly important role, just as Japan did in the 1960s and = 1970s. In=20 this sense, China is currently the big story, just as India will = probably=20 be the next. At the moment, there is great apprehension in the = rest of=20 Asia about China=92s rising dominance. Countries that compete with = China as=20 exporters of manufactures, and recipients of direct foreign = investment,=20 feel that they will be overwhelmed.

I think most people in Australia have welcomed the growing = importance=20 of China. This is in part because we do not see China as a = competitor=20 because we do not compete with them in low-tech high-volume = manufacturing.=20 We tend to see them as a complementary economy. I do not think we = would be=20 able to take the same comfort if we had maintained the old=20 heavily-protected manufacturing sector we had in the first half of = the=20 post-war period.

This complementarity does not mean that Australia has to see = itself as=20 only a provider of resource-based products from our mines and = farms.=20 Manufactured exports to China, while they are small, are growing = strongly.=20 There is still plenty of scope for the further expansion of our=20 high-value-added manufacturing and service exports. It is = remarkable how=20 much of the growth in international trade is intra-industry trade = =96 that=20 is two countries both exporting to each other within the same type = of=20 product. This is particularly true of manufacturing.

I will conclude my talk tonight with two small but concrete = examples of=20 how intra-industry trade between Australia and China is = developing. These=20 examples are drawn from the Reserve Bank=92s Small Business Panel, = a meeting=20 we have with small businesses originally designed to hear their = views=20 about finance, but now covering a wider range of topics. The two = examples=20 I will conclude with tonight are as follows:

One member of the Panel, who runs a company producing petrol = and=20 diesel driven electricity generators, said he was experiencing a = lot of=20 competition for small generators from Chinese imports. However, = he was=20 doing better in the export market and had just won a tender for = an=20 important export order. When questioned, he revealed that it was = for the=20 Chinese army! As an aside, the engines on his generators are = imported=20 from Japan and Italy. This is symptomatic of the extent of=20 intra-industry international trade that occurs these days.=20
Another Panel member runs a company that installs wooden = floors in=20 Victoria using a special locking device between the floorboards. = His=20 Australian supplier stopped supplying the specially finished=20 floorboards, and so he was forced to look elsewhere. Eventually, = he came=20 up with a system whereby he ships the bulk wood to Malaysia, = they glue=20 and machine it to his requirements, and he receives it ready for = installation in Australia at 20 per cent below the price of his = former=20 supplier. He is now exploring the alternative of moving his = source of=20 supply to China at a probable saving of 50 per cent.

Footnotes

For those who are not, the relevant = references are=20 =93The War Diaries of Weary Dunlop=94, Penguin, 1990, and = =93Weary: The Life=20 of Sir Edward Dunlop=94, Sue Ebury, Penguin, 1995. (back to=20 text)=20
Sir Laurens van der Post refers to = him in his=20 book =93The Night of the New Moon=94. Weary Dunlop also referred = to him in=20 his published war diaries (entry for 5 November 1942) and = confirmed in=20 conversation with Leeson that Bill Phillips was the New Zealand = RAF=20 officer who built the wireless.(back to=20 text)=20
If we take a long enough sweep of = history, this=20 should not surprise us. Angus Maddison, who is the favoured = authority on=20 economic growth over the long run of history, records that in = 1820 Asia,=20 excluding Japan, accounted for 56 per cent of world output (and = China=20 alone, 33 per cent). By 1913, Asia=92s share had fallen to 22 = per cent,=20 with China down to 9 per cent.(back to=20 text)=20
Plus two very small economies =96 = Ireland and=20 Luxembourg.(back to=20 text)

=A9 Reserve Bank of Australia, 2001-2003. = All rights=20 reserved.

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Asia's Role in Australia's Economic Future

I.J. MacfarlaneGovernor

Tenth Annual Sir Edward "Weary" Dunlop Asialink=20 LectureSydney - 16 October 2003

Output Growth

Trade and Investment

The Future

Concluding Comments

Footnotes

I.J. Macfarlane
Governor

Tenth Annual Sir Edward "Weary" Dunlop Asialink=20 Lecture
Sydney - 16 October 2003