Two-Party-Preferred Statistics 1998

Victoria

A swing of 3.22% statewide to the ALP lifted its two-party-preferred vote to 53.53%. Interestingly, even in the electoral landslide of 1996, Victoria narrowly preferred the ALP with 50.31%.

The ALP was hoping for a larger swing in Victoria in 1998, but this did not eventuate and a number of seats the party was hoping to win (such as Ballarat, La Trobe, Deakin and McEwen) were retained by the Liberals, assisting their return to government.

These seats will be the ones to watch in the 2001 election. In the light of electoral volatility in rural areas, as witnessed in the 1999 State election, the seats of Gippsland, Corangamite and Indi may also be in contention.

Two-Party-Preferred Statistics 1998 House of Representatives - Victoria
No.	Electorate	% Swing To ALP From 1996	ALP	Coalition	% Swing Required To Lose In 2001
1	Aston	1.35	45.76	54.24	4.24
2	Ballarat	0.90	47.23	52.77	2.77
3	Batman	5.12	76.43	23.57	26.43
4	Bendigo	4.35	53.47	46.53	3.47
5	Bruce	5.96	56.72	43.28	6.72
6	Burke	0.58	57.61	42.39	7.61
7	Calwell	1.78	68.98	31.02	18.98
8	Casey	1.78	45.13	54.87	4.87
9	Chisholm	4.67	52.07	47.93	2.07
10	Corangamite	3.19	45.50	54.50	4.50
11	Corio	4.56	61.36	38.64	11.36
12	Deakin	0.55	48.07	51.93	1.93
13	Dunkley	1.32	47.96	52.04	2.04
14	Flinders	6.34	46.28	53.72	3.72
15	Gellibrand	4.68	75.91	24.09	25.91
16	Gippsland	9.81	41.17	58.83	8.83
17	Goldstein	2.79	41.85	58.15	8.15
18	Higgins	1.11	40.38	59.62	9.62
19	Holt	2.30	65.11	34.89	15.11
20	Hotham	3.03	63.59	36.41	13.59
21	Indi	7.69	39.89	60.11	10.11
22	Isaacs	4.84	56.40	43.60	6.40
22	Isaacs By-Election 12-8-00	9.64	66.04	33.96 Dem	16.04
23	Jagajaga	3.20	55.91	44.09	5.91
24	Kooyong	2.42	38.61	61.39	11.39
25	Lalor	1.31	69.82	30.18	19.82
26	La Trobe	0.38	49.01	50.99	0.99
27	McEwen	1.13	48.96	51.04	1.04
28	McMillan	2.64	50.57	49.43	0.57
29	Mallee	4.13	30.63	69.37	19.37
30	Maribyrnong	3.20	72.06	27.94	22.06
31	Melbourne	1.59	71.80	28.20	21.80
32	Melbourne Ports	-0.22	55.83	44.17	5.83
33	Menzies	5.59	44.60	55.40	5.40
34	Murray	2.17	27.94	72.06	22.06
35	Scullin	1.10	71.84	28.16	21.84
36	Wannon	4.87	42.56	57.44	7.44
37	Wills	-1.26	70.96	29.04	2.86
TOTAL		3.22	53.53	46.47

Source: Australian Electoral Commission publications

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